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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: milo_morai who wrote (33876)	3/28/2001 1:47:28 AM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Respond to of 275872

Isn't P4 on 130nm going to still be larger than size of Athlon on 180nm? Yes, I think still slightly larger. THE WATSONYOUTH

To: milo_morai who wrote (33876)	3/28/2001 9:13:36 AM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

It seems that Intel is anticipating Northwood, even with 512K L2 cache, will be slightly larger than 100mm2, versus less than 100mm2 for Clawhammer. But Athlon will still be at between 110mm2 and 120mm2, so if Intel reaches their target, the then current Athlon will be larger than Northwood at the time Northwood ships. However, when AMD makes the transition to Thoroughbred, even with 512K L2 cache, Thoroughbred should be significantly smaller than Clawhammer. I doubt if Intel will have more 0.13-micron capacity in Q4 '01 than AMD had 0.18-micron capacity in Q3 '00. If all of this were to be devoted to Northwood, they could cause a lot of problems for AMD's consumer market. If all of it were devoted to mobile P-III production, they could stall AMD's foray into the mobile market. But, Intel will be splitting their 0.13-micron resources between Northwood and mobile P-III, which will not give them enough volume in either market to halt AMD's market share growth. Q1 '02 could be rough for AMD, but Q1 generally is anyway.