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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (37568)	3/28/2001 5:20:49 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

The things market has discounted.. third quarter profit recession of tech.<<It is now clear that S&P500 earnings will be down, on a year-over-year basis, for at least the first three quarters of 2001. Current estimates are that earnings growth will be down 7.2% for 1Q01, down 5.2% for 2Q01, and up 2.7% for 3Q01. There is no doubt that, by the 3Q01 reporting season in October, the 2.7% gain will have been cut to a sizeable decline. There is now no question that the profits recession will be at least three quarters long. Since the beginning of March, the earnings growth estimates for 1Q01 and 2Q01 have continued to come down at the rate of about a full percentage point a week. For 3Q01 and 4Q01, the decline was almost at a full percentage point, but the rate has accelerated from earlier in the year. The market clearly will turn up before the economy and earnings turn up, usually about two quarters ahead. That means if the recovery were going to come in 3Q01, the market should have turned up in 1Q01, which has not been the case, so the market appears to be confirming that the upturn will not be in 3Q01. Now that the market has apparently thrown in the towel on a 3Q01 earnings recovery, the issue is whether the upturn will come in 4Q01. About all one can do in this environment is, as time goes on, eliminate which quarters the upturn will not be in. Over the next few months it should emerge whether earnings will bottom in 3Q01 and turn up in 4Q01, or whether the conclusion will be that it will be 1Q02 or later. The timing and depth of the earnings bottom will depend heavily on what happens in the technology sector. The estimates are now clearly in free fall for all four quarters of 2001 for the S&P500 tech sector earnings. The rate of decline has decelerated slightly for 1Q01 and 2Q01, but could reaccelerate as we move into the peak weeks for pre-announcements. More worrisome is the acceleration in the last two weeks in 4Q01 downward revisions in tech earnings. Down now to an expected increase of only 5% in 4Q01, it seems highly likely that the final numbers will show a decline in year-over-year earnings. In addition, the 3Q01 earnings for the basic materials and capital goods sectors have been undergoing substantive downward revisions over the last few weeks. But the 2Q01 and 3Q01 estimates for the consumer cyclicals and consumer staples sectors have stabilized in recent weeks. A key issue will be to see if that continues or whether the slashing resumes in those sectors. Meanwhile, the negative pre-announcements for 1Q01 have continued to run well ahead of the record setting pace in 4Q00, particularly in the technology sector. Earnings for the S&P500 in 1Q01 are likely to be down 7% to 9%, depending on how bad the pre-announcements get over this week and the next two. For the tech sector the final results are likely to show a decline of 30% to 34%.>> First call...

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (37568)	3/28/2001 8:27:27 AM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike...if it was all factored in PALM would be UP 6 points, NT would be UP, and CSCO, AMCC, etc etc...would all BE UP at the open today.....guesss what dude THEY ARE ALL DOWN .....it's not factored in!! Maytag is a durable good....and hints of new house builds ect. btw....have you ever lived in the USA? Do you understand how ALL of America thinks, works, and lives? It's not all about DC, NYC, LA or Sicklicon Valley. From your comments I take it that you have been sheltered from what the USA is all about, the root of the Blue Collar America is all about Maytag.