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To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (12036)	3/28/2001 12:44:22 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

One should try to stay with in ones own skill level and stay true to ones knowledge base. Mine is buying stocks off of bases and when I short it's only for short term not like this, so I'm going back to the waiting mode while using CSCO as my gauge for when the bulk of the selling is priced in. Bewaiting

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (12036)	3/28/2001 2:55:28 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 13572

a slightly different view of interest rates I usually compare the overly tight FedFunds rate of 5.0% now versus 3-mo TBill yield the 3mo yield is around 4.4% now, maybe a little lower even we have the illusion of a Fed setting rates at an appropriate level but the FedFunds is still hitting the brakes for 60 bpt now no way Jose is the Fed even close to right curiously, the Fed is "chasing" the 3mo TB yield it was about 4.8% just early March then the experts were crying the Fed was behind the curve now another 40 bpts have been consumed by the recession while the Fed went from 5.5% to 5.0% with 3mo at 4.8%, they seemed on top of the matter but my concern has been and will continue to be "chasing the 3moyield" Siegell of Wharton BSchool thinks Fed should be at 4.0% NOW money is still very tight, from another measure -- inflation the CPI is a pathetic inflation statistic it is overly weighted toward energy costs, not consistent with our GDP the better measure is the GDP deflator index it contains far more intelligence and chain sequenced techniques in the measurement two weeks ago the stock market endured a scare from a high CPI report what an incredibly shitty statistic, an embarrassment to all federal quant jockeys I would NEVER be a member of the federal statistical establishment the latest GDP deflator was 1.9% though, measured over wider scope so the real cost of money is now 5.0% minus 2.0% equaling 3.0% this is an exceptionally expensive and high cost historically the real cost is around 1.5 to 2.0% the Fed is still 100 bpt too high, money too costly naive PosterBoy from PlanetUgly GreenScrotum is discouraging investment still further infusions by the Fed to keep liquidity flowing will be devoted to maintaining the bond market equilibrium we are in a liquidity trap now if the Fed tightens on liquidity now, we will see a rise in bond yields that would target a new torpedo at stocks sell into rallies nowhere near the end of the nightmare, on a time spectrum forget prices, when to re-enter is the question not now, not next week, maybe after April 15th taxdate I still have a hard time saying "start the 6-9 months from the time of Fed easing" but I know 150 bpt cuts in Jan-March will have some pronounced impact eventually I just dont think the GreenNumbNut has his feet off the brakes EVEN YET / JW, your garden jackass