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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J Langholtz who wrote (9172)	3/28/2001 1:11:14 PM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 196952

Good point. VOD is a puzzle within an enigma. Management has a style of taking no prisoners which makes MSFT look gentle. So, whatever VOD does is in its own direct interest for sure. And destroying the competition is paramount. Any means, any. Suggest we just watch and learn. Best. Chaz

To: J Langholtz who wrote (9172)	3/28/2001 1:52:26 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 196952

Re : understanding Vodafone's crazy stance -- they ate a lot of British beef (?) Jon.

To: J Langholtz who wrote (9172)	3/28/2001 1:54:21 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Respond to of 196952

The whole auction scenario is a nightmare for everyone, it's a damned if you do, damed if you don't game. You can't afford to lose the spectrum, and you can't afford to win it. Caxton

To: J Langholtz who wrote (9172)	3/28/2001 3:15:19 PM
From: cfoe	Respond to of 196952

Any thoughts would be appreciated. Here's mine - or at least one positive interpretation on VOD's recent actions. They are playing to the European regulators - showing them that they are trying their best to fight for W-CDMA. Even going to the point of criticizing a company they own 45% of. In the end, after all their valiant efforts to bolster the near-term prospects for W-CDMA fail, they will go to the regulators and say that temporarily, until W-CDMA is ready, they will need to put 1X in. Albeit a long shot, I think there is more to the VOD's dance than meets the eye.

To: J Langholtz who wrote (9172)	3/28/2001 3:24:05 PM
From: JMD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196952

J Langholtz, you've asked a great question, one that is very tough to answer. If I may paraphrase, your inquiry asks if this board is so CDMA-centric (prejudiced)that it is blind to the possibility that a smart outfit like VOD may have excellent reasons to hang on to the GSM platform. And, by extension, that the "obvious" benefits of going with CDMA 2000 may not be real. Last, you remind us that VOD's management is charged with maximizing shareholder value, and that their apparent decision to stay the course with 'inferior' technology is at odds with that objective. How can this paradox be explained? Some have suggested that VOD is playing a very clever end game--pretending to run with all the other European service providers and professing loyalty to the GSM platform, which they know will be ruinous. Then, when their fellow competitors are weakened, VOD will use their superior financial strength to swoop in and pick up assets on the cheap. My personal opinion of the 'end game' theory is that it is too convoluted, and expensive, to be credible. OTOH, stranger things have happened. More importantly, I don't see how we could be privy to such a scheme, if it in fact exists. I'd suggest that it's much simpler: the Europeans are simply married lock, stock, and paradigm to GSM. They are incapable of comprehending/dealing/seeing the implications of the technology shift known as CDMA. Economic history is full of other industries and companies who have blown a so-called paradigm shift with horrific consequences for shareholder wealth. Take your choice: sailing ships wiped out by steam, IBM/Mainframes zapped by PC's, Kodak flailing away in the face of the inevitable triumph of digital photography, and so on, ad nauseam. So, you're undoubtedly correct to question whether the Qualcomm fantatics are blind to some secret sauce known only to the GSM legions. And it is indeed hard to comprehend how some very savvy operators are swallowing kool aid by the barrel. But if history provides us any guidance, the facts are that this same scenario has played out many times in many ways. What makes this juncture so "interesting" is that the GSM folks have now bet the ranch or its equivalent in the form of almost 200 billion in spectrum costs operating on the theory that their new version of whizz-bang 3G will make it all worthwhile. The Q nut cases (of whom I proudly count myself one) think they've blown it big time, cause their bucket's got a big hole in it and San Diego's got the stopper. Now let's assume that VOD, uniquely among the European carriers, KNOWS that Q is holding all the aces cause they've seen the goods in action (if not at the overlay trials a few years back, then certainly through Verizon). Let's further assume that they initially bought into the claim that GSM could come up with something 'just as good' and in a reasonable time frame. Now they know that neither is true, but they're in hock up to their ears. What's a girl supposed to do? Fess up to the bankers that all the money you owe 'em went up in smoke cause you put it on the wrong pony at the Trifecta? Me not thinking so. Far better to deny and obfuscate to buy time--hell that's a time honored strategy . . .until it's time to pay the piper, at which point the strategy will blow up in their faces. And that time won't be long in coming now. To me, that's the real end game that's playing out before us, no matter how incomprehensible and irrational it may seem on the surface. The fat lady may not yet have sung, but she's tuning up her vocal chords. kind regards, mike doyle