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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (4390)	3/28/2001 3:01:11 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

Paul, As mentioned last week, I suspected a retest this week and here we are basicly already retesting on the NAZ/NDX - just a few more points. Now the question is whether new lows will be produced and unfortunately my short-term technicals are only in the lower midrange, implying that there is about 2-3 more potential downside days before I would get a CLASS 1 BUY signal, if it doesnt reverse right from here. Last week when the NAZ was around these levels the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs were around negative 500, and right now its around negative 167, so on a relative basis there is some positive divergence. I suspect that NEW LOWs will be set, but they may not be a whole lot lower and feel that the 1500-1400(NDX) support region holds if it gets that low. To some that is a lot, but to me its just a matter of time when the NDX sees 1500-1400, and that may STILL not be the main bottom. Im not convinced that this is PHASE 3 for the NAZ/NDX and may still be only PHASE 2. On a fundamental/subjective perspective the overall P/E on the NDX/NAZ is still high and above historical average. Using the RUBBERBAND analogy, what was pulled too hard in one direction may be pulled equally as hard in the opposite direction. So for discussion only, lets say that the historical P/E for the NDX is around 30-40, that RUBBERBAND may bring it to the 20-25 region or lower.