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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (49894)	3/28/2001 2:53:04 PM
From: moufassa7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

OT: I'm listening to Aerosmith's Just Push Play now. It's their best by far. IMO. LOL.

To: Rande Is who wrote (49894)	3/28/2001 3:39:12 PM
From: Kevin Shea	Respond to of 57584

In addition, the "kicker" is still the issue of replacement power. Power companies are ( have been - not sure now) ) required to maintain sufficient enough power to replace lost power of self generating users... That means that they must still continue to build up capacity even as people are "disconnecting" --- which results in the cost of replacement power increasing dramatically based on simple supply/demand/regulations... While I agree that self generation is desirable, are consumer really ready to have the local "plumber" on call for restoration of power.... obviously the goal would be to have it work like furnaces and water heaters... but, until then, what? I do believe that FC are a good idea and that utility companies will be the best distribution chain, and it may work well if they are able to keep politicians away from creating distorted supply/demand inbalances that serve only to make people feel like they're screwing the "bad" utilities, when in the end their screwing themselves... stepping off my soapbox now... <g>

To: Rande Is who wrote (49894)	3/28/2001 5:58:13 PM
From: WhatsUpWithThat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

I'll take your "Good points" at face value, Rande, because you've historically encouraged open discussion, but I have to say your reply felt defensive to me. I wasn't attacking your view on FCs, just tempering your statement that people could pay for a Home Gen 7000 with just one year's savings on electricity. Though undoubtedly there's a 'stick it to the utility' factor, I think you'd find the average homeowner, if pressed, wouldn't pay a huge premium in real dollars just for that satisfaction. Re. your bad experiences with poor power quality, I'm sure you'd agree that your situation is not average at all, that most people aren't running time-is-money operations from their homes where they stand to lose $10K from a power quality issue. You're absolutely right, of course, for those that do, a power conditioner or a good on-line UPS - where the output power is actually seperated from the input power, so you literally can't get any flow-through surges or brown-outs - is an excellent investment to protect critical equipment. So while power quality is certainly an issue to weigh, the average user wouldn't put the same dollar value on it as you'd have to. As to other costs that need to be factored in I did some more digging, as you suggested. Purchase cost From GE's site (http://gepower.com/microgen/faqs.html): "Retail pricing is determined by the regional distributors who will install the unit and meet any necessary interconnection requirements. Although GE MicroGen does not determine retail prices, less than $3,000/kW is a reasonable expectation for our first commercial unit. We expect prices to decrease as the technology matures and sales volume increases." I couldn't find the $5-7000 cost you mentioned on either PLUG's or GE's site. This statement, if I interpret it correctly, looks like 7kW steady output X sub-$3000 = ??? to $20,000 capital cost, biased towards the high end for the first, while I'm sure. NG Consumption From GE's FAQ's also: "Cost per kWh using natural gas = Natural Gas price per MCF X 0.01[...]Multiply your cost per kWh from the equation above times your monthly kWh usage (from your utility bill)" In my case, looks like my house averages about 1200 kWh per month, and NG for me (in Canada) approximately $10.85/MCF (thousand cubic feet), so cost per month on avg for me using this FC would be $10.85 x .01 x 1200 = $130 a month, or $1560 per year (hmmm...sorry, that's CDN dollars, so about $1075 US a year). Interestingly, in my case that's nearly twice as expensive as my actual electricity cost for the same number of kWh. Could be screwed up by the regulatory pricing where I live, of course. I'd be interested to know others' results (for anyone looking to do this, if your gas bill measures consumption in gigajoues, as mine did, apparently the US conversion factor from MCF is 1.08 (ie. MCF x 1.08 = GJ)). More on this operating cost issue, from gepower.com "In many areas, the system can provide electricity at or below the price of utility-supplied power; due primarily to the system's low operating cost and high fuel efficiency." That's telling, IMO: there obviously are areas where the cost of generating the elec with their FC is higher than the utility-provided power. Maintenance From GE's FAQ's: "The system requires a routine annual check-up by an authorized service technician, and the replacement of certain components, such as the stack, every four to six years. Because HomeGen 7000 is in testing and development, practical information about maintenance is not available." Jury's out on how much, but there is maintenance cost. Support cost Because as Kevin Shea points out the utility has to keep you connected to the grid and supply backup power if you need it, this point is moot for now. You don't need to pay the generally significant fee required to provide 7x24 emergency response you would if you were all on your own; maintenance fees and a break/fix cost calculation are all you'd need (see above) Wow, this got out of hand, though I didn't mean it to. It became quite interesting, and I've learned a lot. I repeat, thanks for your overview of FC's. I found it very useful and always value your opinion. I think you just overstated the economic case for them on a user basis at this point. Best regards WUWT

To: Rande Is who wrote (49894)	3/28/2001 8:53:26 PM
From: Joe Lyddon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Another thought to chew on. . . In order to be assured of 100% uninterruptable power, one could buy TWO of the Fuel Cell units with a computer monitoring the Live one. . . At such time there was ANY sign of jeopardy, it would turn on the second unit, to operate in parallel until up to speed, then turn off the first one where it could be serviced in due course. Now, if this option were taken, everything concerning Pay Back & service contracts would have to be doubled (I think). . . <gg> Would it then be worth the effort & expense? Living in Calif., it doesn't bother me very much to pay more the Power. . . but I must say, I, in no way, come close to paying $500/mo. . . divide that by 5 & subtract a few bucks & that's where I am. . . For me to enter into a Fuel Cell alternative would take me 5 times longer for Pay Back than it would for Rande. I think I'm caught between a rock & a nice place to live. . . So, I'm just going to roll with the punches. Just a little more to think about. . . <ggg> Nice discussion! Joe