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Gold/Mining/Energy : TVX Gold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: baystock who wrote (797)	3/28/2001 7:40:54 PM
From: Edmund Lee	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 905

<So ? I don't recall saying otherwise. I am not a bondholder and so I don't give a hoot about the total market cap of the company at conversion. But I do care about what price the conversion takes place, ie. at 25 cents per share or at $1. And right now this future conversion price is as clear as mud.> The conversion price would be no less than a dollar. There is a deal with the bondholders that TVX must maintain NYSE listing and $1 is the min requirement. Yes, there will be dilution when the bondholder had their shares but the company can issue poison pills to prevent a take over by issue of warrant or rights to existing shareholder. (say 5 warrant and 5 rights for 1 share)

To: baystock who wrote (797)	3/28/2001 8:04:17 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 905

This play is a stub, and in this genre one needs to take the whole capital structure into account. First there is the 234 million note (A), then we take off net work cap. which I calculate at 46 (B), and then the 37 million mkt cap (C)is added to give us an enterprise basis or value (D)(what the market thinks this gold business is worth). That figure today is 225 million. Then if TVX were bought or merged say for 400 million, then after squaring off A and B, the stub player has the 212 million/35.7, or $6 a share number. In an ideal world, the stub player would like to see A reduced or eliminated as it makes the D threshold lower. Indeed the potential exists for this number to come down as TVX has a normal course bid in place, the financial ability (96 million unencumbered cash)to make a dent, and the notes trade in the 60's not par. Or they may sell all or part of the enterprise and retire or greatly reduce the debt. finance.yahoo.com The following would have to occur for the dooms day scenario to occur. The company would make no attempt to retire the note through an asset sale, development venture in Greece, or would fail to carry out any aspect of the note buy back at all, or just allowed the thinly traded stub to trade for a buck as we approached maturity. In that climate of extreme neglect, we would see conversion to stock at these absurd prices, and there would be 227 million new shares issued (263 million total). But my threshold enterprise value would still be the same: 225 million. Because of the remaining quivers TVX has, I just see that as very unlikely, and am willing to speculate so. I think that's why you have the close out management in place now. My guess is that Batiste was too asleep on all this, and people like Gabelli brought in the right talent for this end game situation. Do I know this? Of course not, but I didn't just fall off the cabbage truck as an investor, and I'm not afraid to theorize (is that allowed on these boards?). But assuming the worst on that front and the dooms day scenario on dilution, if I got the 400 million deal (I think that's low, not high), plus 46 million working capital, my price has been reduced to $1.70. At $300 million (your skeptical low cost deposit theory?) I am close to break even. Finally there is the 200 POG scenario, all TVX mines are valued at zero, as is the Hellas project. My stub is probably worthless. As far as my "obsession" with low cost deposits? I'd be willing to debate the merits of low sub-100 deposits like Hellas (fairly modest capex), versus high cost 200 plus situations with you any time, any place. Stock rollbacks, American delistings, and removal from mining indexes may affect how the stock trades, but has nothing to do with TVX's fundamentals, which are pretty impressive even at 260 POG. Besides this story will be over for better or worse by yearend.

To: baystock who wrote (797)	3/29/2001 12:30:48 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 905

<Yes it is a big deal, that difference of $66 million is twice the value of all the common shares. You were probably overlooking "small" details like this prior to when TVX did its last 8 for 1 reverse split, and will be saying the same thing when the next one comes along. TVX has lost 75% of its market cap in the last 12 months while the so called dogs (as you put it) HGMCY and DROOY are close to breaking even. > Yet, this may be VERY interesting if what you say is true... is this what they call a "toxic" convertible??? Do you have the particulars of the contract?? I'd love to have a look. In some cases the stock price can be beat down and the converters can theoretically steal the whole company. DAK