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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clay Takaya who wrote (10445)	3/28/2001 7:04:40 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

if Sagawa prediction are so good why he was pushing Lucent all the time on its way to 10$ ? (LOL) He naively thinks that telecom spending is independent of economy abd % rate what is wrong. Once % rate satrt to push economy by fall, he will be first to predict increase in capex. Since BOD of ATT and WCOM just wfew weeks ago approved capex for 2001, I am now surprised that was little orders until recently: "``We're starting to see a few encouraging signs, but we'd like to see those encouraging signs extend for several weeks before we call it a trend. And that's why we're not prepared to issue a formal forecast for the balance of the year.'' dailynews.yahoo.com

To: Clay Takaya who wrote (10445)	3/28/2001 7:39:51 PM
From: John Soileau	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14638

<<Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Paul Sagawa cut his 2001 earnings estimate to naught from 69 cents per share.>> Hey, many in this business would LOVE to have 2001 earnings of "naught"! << Particularly alarming is his prediction that meaningful reaccelleration of telecom capex is not going to resume until late 2002.>> He hasn't been right in the past, why assume he starts now? I want huge amounts of very fast data NOW at home and on my cellphone. I don't want to wait until 2003 or so. There are what, 300 million or more of me that want the same thing NOW. What are the odds that infrastructure capex just sits still till then? And if it does, how will the LU and NT order book look in 2003? John

To: Clay Takaya who wrote (10445)	3/28/2001 10:45:40 PM
From: WiseGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

Let me just point out a few positives buried deep in the sand of bad news. 1) NT's earnings estimates are coming down substantially with several analysts already setting nil earnings for 2001. This provides a low base for NT to move on from here. Let's hope that JR has learned his lessons in managing the street and doesn't significantly raise estimates every time there's a good quarter. 2) NT is still the perceived technology leader, which is why the market took such big hits today. The fear is that if the leader has tanked, then every one will shortly follow. This was exactly what happened after the Feb 15 warning. If it is still perceived as the leader, it will have lots of strength to the upside once the economy improves. This is significant because you don't want to be in a company that won't bounce when everyone starts to move up.