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To: cavan who wrote (254)	4/9/2001 12:12:25 PM
From: CIMA	Respond to of 280

Market demand uncertain for tantalum LONDON (Metal-Pages) 03-Apr-01. The rocketing price of tantalum, which reached $250-$365/lb from just $40/lb last year, has steadied over recent months with a slow-down in the mobile phone industry and the influx of African material. Prices have been quoted nearer $100/lb recently and, it is thought, could remain steady at this mark for some time. Market demand for the metal, driven by its use in pin-head capacitors, which are an integral component of mobile phone technology, grew by an estimated 25% last year. December, meanwhile, saw Kemet Corp – the world’s largest manufacturer of solid tantalum capacitors – reporting record sales and earnings for the sixth successive quarter. It is future demand for the product, however, that is causing some concern for the metal’s major producers. A paper presented at Symposium 2000 by John Liden, Head of Marketing at Sons of Gwalia – the world’s leading producer – has highlighted the problems inherent with uncertainty over future demand for the metal. “The hardest thing for the industry to do is to forecast demand accurately within a timeframe that will allow new production of raw materials to be brought on-stream and allow the processors to install the necessary capacity to satisfy that demand.” With particular reference to those forecasts he reported. “There is sufficient evidence available to indicate tantalum demand is currently growing at between 10 and 30% per annum”. ”At a growth rate of 10% per annum in tantalum demand, the current supply and inventory base is sufficient to meet increased demand through 2003” but, he surmised, “at a growth rate of 20% per annum, the current supply is insufficient and expansion of existing and new mines must be developed.” Should demand for ore rise at 20% per annum, it is estimated that by 2003 supply will be outstripped by 861 metric tons. If future increases in demand mirror 2000 levels or tend towards the higher end of industry speculation, then shortfalls will become increasingly evident. The decision to invest in new resources through the expansion of existing mines and the foundation of new operations needs to be taken soon, but these decisions will be based on two important criteria. Firstly, the availability of secure sales contracts for raw materials and processor products at prices that reflect market conditions - and give an acceptable return on the required investment - and, secondly, the “timely installation of the production capacity required across all levels of the tantalum industry”. Whether these guarantees can be made and adequate response implemented is uncertain. Liden believes that “given the resources which exist, there is no reason to suggest that the industry cannot continue to expand and grow, provided the industry works together to ensure that the supply chain and production capacity are co-ordinated to meet the market requirements”. The pertinent question, however, is not whether the industry can cope with rising demand. It is how quickly that demand will increase and how long increased demand can be sustained – and with current end use markets reaching saturation point within a relatively untested industry, the answer is difficult to predict.

To: cavan who wrote (254)	4/23/2001 8:56:54 PM
From: CIMA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 280

Nigeria: Gearing Up for a Volatile Presidential Campaign stratfor.com Summary Presidential elections aren't until 2003, but allies of former military ruler Gen. Ibrahim Babangida are gearing up to contest the race. Babangida's return to Nigerian national politics would signal a resurgence of factional politics, ensuring a volatile presidential campaign that could threaten Nigeria's chances for continued democracy. Analysis In a move illustrating a divisive trend in Nigerian politics, associates of retired Gen. Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, Nigeria's former military leader, formed a new political association April 9. The newly formed National Solidarity Association (NSA) largely comprises politicians and military leaders from Nigeria's Northern states. Presidential elections are still two years off, but the NSA's formation demonstrates how regional political factions, held in check by President Olusegun Obasanjo's administration, are re- emerging as the dominant force driving political change in Nigeria. Babangida's return to Nigerian national politics not only marks the end of a political compromise between North and South, but also sets the stage for a volatile presidential campaign that will inflame tensions among the nation's various ethnic groups. Moreover, as the campaign heats up and takes shape, the already precarious balance that has held the military in check will grow increasingly difficult to maintain. ********* TO READ THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE CLICK HERE ********* stratfor.com ___________________________________________________________________ <<<<<<<<<<<<<< SUBSCRIBE TO BECOME A MEMBER TODAY!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> STRATFOR introduces new, expanded analysis for readers seeking more insight on the entire range of global affairs. Our new site features more intelligence on more subjects, easier navigation and expanded coverage. stratfor.com <<<<<<<<<<<<<< SUBSCRIBE TO BECOME A MEMBER TODAY!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ___________________________________________________________________ CONTACTS AND CUSTOMER SERVICES: STRATFOR 700 Lavaca, Suite 450 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-744-4300 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com NOTICE: While all e-mail from STRATFOR and its partners includes an opportunity to opt out of future communications, you can edit your information and preferences at any time. If you do not wish to be contacted by STRATFOR, or its approved third parties, regarding value-added benefits, products and services, please follow the instructions to "unsubscribe" provided in all e-mail messages. SIGN-UP: Get the free, daily Global Intelligence Update: stratfor.com You can stop receiving the GIU by clicking on: stratfor.com ADVERTISE: For information on advertising in the GIU or any section of the STRATFOR website, please email us at advertising@stratfor.com ==================================================== (c) 2001 Strategic Forecasting LLC. All rights reserved.

To: cavan who wrote (254)	5/3/2001 12:17:08 PM
From: CIMA	Respond to of 280

A week ago, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo replaced all three chiefs of the 80,000-man armed forces. The president appears to be moving to pre-empt his opponents, particularly members of the Hausa ethnic group. The loyalty of top officers is vital, both to the government and to Nigeria's role as a top exporter of oil to the United States. Analysis Nigeria's army, navy and air force chiefs retired April 24. The military claimed they reached retirement age and that was the reason for their discharge, reported Agence France-Presse April 24. But the decision by all three to step down - simultaneously - suggests they were forced out. The president apparently dismissed the three service chiefs to strengthen his control over Nigeria's armed forces. The president is motivated by looming presidential elections, just a few years away, and concerns over the increasingly tribal and ethnic fractures of Nigerian politics. He is trying to pre-empt the Hausa from dominating the military again. This struggle over the 80,000-man Nigerian military is important for the survival of the Obasanjo regime and the supply of oil, particularly to the United States. Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer and a top supplier to the American market. ********* TO READ THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE CLICK HERE ********* stratfor.com ___________________________________________________________________ <<<<<<<<<<<<<< SUBSCRIBE TO BECOME A MEMBER TODAY!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> STRATFOR introduces new, expanded analysis for readers seeking more insight on the entire range of global affairs. Our new site features more intelligence on more subjects, easier navigation and expanded coverage. stratfor.com <<<<<<<<<<<<<< SUBSCRIBE TO BECOME A MEMBER TODAY!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ___________________________________________________________________ CONTACTS AND CUSTOMER SERVICES: STRATFOR 700 Lavaca, Suite 450 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-744-4300 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com NOTICE: While all e-mail from STRATFOR and its partners includes an opportunity to opt out of future communications, you can edit your information and preferences at any time. If you do not wish to be contacted by STRATFOR, or its approved third parties, regarding value-added benefits, products and services, please follow the instructions to "unsubscribe" provided in all e-mail messages. SIGN-UP: Get the free, daily Global Intelligence Update: stratfor.com You can stop receiving the GIU by clicking on: stratfor.com ADVERTISE: For information on advertising in the GIU or any section of the STRATFOR website, please email us at advertising@stratfor.com ==================================================== (c) 2001 Strategic Forecasting LLC. All rights reserved.