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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (50608)	3/28/2001 10:21:32 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

re: theFY 2002 $0.27????? Analyst forward earnings estimates are an expression of current sentiment. Nothing else. As long as the balance between fear and greed tilts steadily toward fear, analysts will cut forward EPS estimates for CSCO. This is their way of saying "sell this stock, it's out of favor". Likewise, overoptimistic forward estimates are their way of saying, "this stock is in favor", or maybe just, "we want this stock to be in favor". You see the exact same thing with the semi-equips. At the peak of every cycle, the 12M forward EPS expectations peak. Remember, back in early 2000, what AMAT was supposed to earn in 2001 and 2002? Remember, how the industry was magically no longer cyclical, and earnings would ramp forever without a pause? Then, at the bottom of every cycle, the forward earnings expectations usually call for falling earnings into the indefinite future. Let's see...... if CSCO's earnings will be 0.27, and they expect "valuation levels approaching the 20x earnings level of the 1990s", then I guess their expected stock price is 0.27 X 20 = 5.4 And, if going from 15.75 to 5.4 makes CSCO a "market performer", then they must think the Nasdaq is going to 700. Gee, I don't remember anyone telling me this back when the Nas was at 5000. This kind of extreme pessimism makes me feel like it's safe to go long (at least for a few days).