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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.B. Cooper who wrote (34892)	3/28/2001 9:22:39 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

your position in a stock can lose 5% of its value each week, every week, forever (after revising your price reference each week) and still stay above zero just had to stick that in a lesson in geometric math excellent article in Business Week on the economy and requirements for the stock market to rebound very well written, unusually adept and thorough risks all over the place, and many unknowns the New Economy forces are still out there now some of them are working against the recovery I dont mean the internet is the enemy of business sure, plenty of excess capacity pertaining to the internet, webservers, installed software, highspeed networks, storage capacity rather, venture capital is near non-existent, as is IPO funding innovation is about to suffer competition is also likely to diminish, not disappear we have enjoyed both a technological revolution and a financial revolution in the last few years of expansion THIS IS THE MISSING CHAPTER IN THE Federal Reserve playbook we dont have ANY history on the repercussions from the financial revolution retreat this recovery is NOT just about continued consumer spending and the revival of capital expenditures after the glut is absorbed the biggest unknown is the repercussion of the financial revolution retreat in my mind seasonal effects, not gonna do it (monthly effects have been shifting for 2-3 years) money on sidelines, not gonna do it (it can chase bonds or foreign stocks) need for brokerage bonuses, not gonna do it (how many times will we believe their self-serving salesmen bullshit?) continued Fed cuts in rates, not gonna do it right away (sledge hammers destroy the good and the bad; removal of sledge hammers dont encourage everyone to rise and run roughshod) the second biggest unknown is the confidence placed in the Federal Reserve to properly manage this growing crisis this confidence is slipping, evident in frequent attacks recently the third biggest unknown is the effect of an economy that now has a far far greater rate of change than ever before it can grow much faster, as seen last year, which frightened the NumbNut Federal Reserve governors it can now shrink much faster than ever seen before we DONT KNOW how fast the economy can retreat three big unknowns as I see it / jim