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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (50627)	3/29/2001 3:02:26 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Formally, CSCO has no longterm debt. However.........they have a lot of bills that are going to come due in the next 3-6 months: 1. charges for inventory 2. charges for restructuring (that means firing a bunch of people) 3. charges for bad debt I used to worry about Cisco's employee options overhang, but that problem is a lot smaller now. Of course, if they give employees more options at lower strike prices, as the stock goes down, while letting them keep the old options, this may place a permanent cap on the stock price. I'm coming around to the opinion that employee stock options should be illegal. If a company wants to align employee and shareholder interests, then give them stock, and expense it when the stock is given. I hate all this Creative Accounting. Cisco can very quickly ramp, as soon as there is business to ramp for. Which, as Chambers tells us every hour on the hour, isn't going to happen soon. 2002 at the earliest is what he said recently. Don't know about Juniper, but the others (LU, NT) are in worse shape than Cisco. re: With rates coming down, will we see a sharp turnaround?: Well, that's the important question. The short answer is: no one knows. My attitude about the V-shaped recovery is: show me. That is, I'm willing to give up the first big bounce off the bottom, in order to make sure I don't catch any (more) falling knives. There is a very real possibility (just a possibility) that we could be looking at a 1973-type recession. I don't believe the 1929 scenario, but 1973 was bad enough. Since we haven't yet had a quarter of negative GDP growth, we could be looking at 2H2002 before the economy (and business IT spending) turns up.