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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stoctrash who wrote (37627)	3/29/2001 8:45:11 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

DELPHI ADCT NT and MOT all are cutting jobs as we go through a huge slow down in economy, but why should we not have it, we kept real interest rates far too high, we kept worrying about 'inflationary pressures' ignoring productivity gains, and now we brought this whole economy to a growth rate of 1.4% from some quarters of as high as 7%. Big companies cut jobs, and people find alternate jobs, we have seen this all through the various up and down cycles, however the fact is that if your consumer confidence is up, or your new housing starts are good and your retail sellers are reporting great sales, you can make any case but not a basket case of the economy, we need to see all this what you say in numbers, last four weeks we have only seen evidence of strong economy, an unemployment rate of 5%, CPI of .3% rising prices indicative of strong demand (apparels and consumer goods) we should have seen falling prices if your deflationary secenrio that you paint is correct. Today's jobless claim is another sign of the huge delfationary band wagon you guys are riding, take care, I want facts, raw facts, don't be emotional about job cuts, pink slips are very much a part of US economic scene.

To: Stoctrash who wrote (37627)	3/29/2001 9:19:51 AM
From: Peace	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Hi FredE, To answer your economy question - How did the economy look in 3/2000 when the nasdaq peaked. It wasnt until the end of the 3rd quarter that the tech slowdown became apparant. The market is a forward discounting mechanism. Like you said ignore jobless claims today its old data, I say the same ignore those layoff news its old data too. What is important is what the data will look like 6 months from now. The market has already discounted bad news for the next 2 qtrs. So, the real question is will there be a recovery by the 4th qtr of 2001 or not. If the answer is yes then this bear market will run out of gas soon. If the answer is no then the bear will have more time to live. The market is looking beyond the next 2 quarters. If a company lowers guidance for the next qtr it doesnt matter. It is when Cisco says no turnaround for at least 3 qtrs it is negative. The biggest problem is most tech companys are providing no guidance for the year as they themselves are not sure when things will look up. If you go by Greenspan and company then you should be bullish. Obviously the market has disagreed with them so far and the market is the final judge in the end. IMO, if one is trading then one should focus on charts and not fundamentals, on the other hand if one is investing for the long term then this is one of the best buying opportunity among the many past downturns. Peace