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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (89426)	3/29/2001 10:26:20 AM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 95453

Roebear. RTN.B showing well on the tape in recent sessions. Nice relative strength vs a lot of other favs. siliconinvestor.com Holding out for another dip before I add. But don't see as much downside on this one as many of the patch plays. Would like to see her in the 24-5 area before I add to my position. But she may not get there unless we melt down for a day or two. As the I Ching says, "Perserverance Furthers".(g) Rushing the buys, not a good policy in a Bear Market. Come on cutie, come to uncle Iso...

To: Roebear who wrote (89426)	3/29/2001 10:26:35 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

So much for "10 Ft Tall & Bulletproof" ? WRONG ! ... in maturing cyclical sector cycles: THE SHAREPRICES ALLWAYS (keyword - allways) DISCONNECT FROM FUNDAMENTALS ON A WHEN, NOT AN IF BASIS... Now; this is not to say that the OSX can not, or will not go on to new highs. But, how many broad market pressures & external factors did you need to be standing on the neck of OSX 135 to see that as a 100% exit/profit taking point in the cycle - as it had "shakeout/Institutional Profit taking written all over it. Institutional holders of Oil stocks were NOT going to just let this huge 3 bagger PROFIT run of the last 2 years in Oil stocks - just hang out there naked in the wind during a Bear market. This wasn't even difficult to see. Now the plastik - fantastik who chastised those for selling & taking profits and exiting at OSX 135 - because we were going to miss the "10 Foot Tall & Bulletproof" move to the sky - are now shorting here after riding this down 25 points ? ... are these buffoons the whipsaw posterchildren or what ? They've literally been human pinballs. They never, ever sell into strength, or resistance level tops; but allways right near the bottom of a shakeout - decide to sell, get shaken out & then they short the bottom of a cycle leg ? ... simply amazing. This is certainly NOT - max margin territory; as late cycle - it's never max margin territory - those days have come & gone for the sane. I'd simply wait for strong money flow/OBV moves converging into the selloff and begin to re-enter. I'm probably more "call" oriented than common stock here; as I want to lever the upside above the recent "been there & done that " trading range of OSX 100-135 for the last year; so calls allow me levered upside; but limit & also define my downside & allow me to keep loads of cash for further gold/silve buying opps on the expected & anticipated re-test of their lows and ultimately; a forray into the abyss of Tech stocks to be able to once again slowly stroll among the ashen ruins & be able to cherry pick the remaining meat off the bones of the chihuahua killing fields (roflamo~). Key stocks to watch are SLB RIG & HAL; their recent weakness signaled an equivalent move in the index to OSX 100; so I wouldn't rule out the possibility of re-testing those levels; but I would also be looking for late cycle pockets - like offshore drillers as my first re-entry niche's the moment the technicals dictate re-entry and the technicals I'd be watching here into this final crescendo pullback are OBV & Money Flows. Watching PDE RIG MRL RDC - maybe a little CAM, possibly NBR, or PTEN if they really crack and MVK here. The lesson learned of this collapse from 135 to 112 when none of the Pom-Pom Perma Bulls expected it; is that the frontline activity levels CAN be "10 Ft Tall & Bulletproof" - but, at a mature, late point in the cycle - it does NOT matter. The Stocks will discount future contractions in Oil & Gas Prices and both the PEAK and the Rollover point of the fundamentals in the cycle; better than commodity prices, or earnings & cash flow will. This is all about the technicals & not the fundamentals here; because it is the appearance of the peak of fundamentals on the horizon & NOT their arrival that will trigger a pullback in shareprices that never comes back. We very well may have seen the OSX highs of this cycle at 140 last Aug/Sept; maybe we see OSX 175 ? - no one knows. But, given all the negative's that were piling up in the broad market & the weakening technicals at this recent OSX run to 135's resistance level - how the hell could people not be dumping en masse at those levels - given all the risks out there. This was one of the easiest profit taking inflection points of the last 2 years... Let the economy continue to slow; let OPEC get behind the curve & watch how slowing demand trumps even well managed supply by OPEC. Also; can anyone rule out DOW 7500 on a fundamental valuation metric basis ? ... of course you can't - that would still NOT be a compelling cheap historic DOW and where would the OSX be at DOW 7500 ? Oils are NOT Bear Market Proof - regardless of how strong "present" frontline fundamentals are. Besides; have you checked the PE's of BHI CAM RIG HAL KEG UTI ? I don't think I will be "portfolio" weighted in Oils again; not at what I view as a collapsing risk vs reward profile as the cycle matures; but surely, given still present crude & gas prices & the still ramping earnings/dayrates in the offshore drillers - the late cycle plays on this pullback look ripe for a helluva trade - but; that may just be "all she wrote" for this "BOOM BOOM" cycle and I'll bet you 100 Kuggerands that the Chihuahua's will miss that exit/profit taking opp as well - guarandamntee it; that they still won't learn from their mistakes... Imho; one more solid rally & then put a fork in this cycle...it's over & time to make money - big money; in the other direction - NET SHORT. I don't worry about being a Bull, or a Bear in a cyclical sector; I only want to be "right". ... and we were on this one ~ WHODATHUNKIT ?

To: Roebear who wrote (89426)	3/29/2001 1:28:57 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

THE TROUGH!!! or Why oil patch stocks will face selling pressure for at least 3 months. Most of the old timey threadsters on this board can read a map and understand the implications of these DOE charts: Aggregates and Crude - the seasonal trough is in. eia.doe.gov Distillates - the seasonal trough is very near. eia.doe.gov Gasoline: Still bullish until refiners get back to work. eia.doe.gov Product imports - Apparently slow world demand means availability. eia.doe.gov Imo the supply problem props keeping prices of crude in the mid/high 20's will be kicked out in the next three to six months. The last bullish prop is gasoline. Don't think that will be able to save the whole crude complex from forming an important top in the coming weeks. IMO NG problems will be eased considerably by a six month build in distillates. Frankly I don't see Crises '01 unless world economies turn on a dime or war in the ME. The cure for high energy prices is high energy prices.