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To: The Verve who wrote (10167)	3/29/2001 1:43:59 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

Verve, << Do people pay money for these 'forecasts'? >> Big Bucks. Same "people" seldom take one forecast feed. Nobody relies on them without the capability to get inside the numbers. JohnG likes Strategy Analytics who forecasts CAGR of 39% for "CDMA" v. 20% CAGR for GSM. << This Strategis forecast calls into question the credibility of any of their forecasts. I don't understand how cdmaOne is afforded such a large number, while 1X is given such a small one. I imagine cdmaOne will be in existence in 2007, but in very small numbers. >> Any forecast, by any of the major research houses - and Strategis is certainly a major - can & should be questioned - and their methodology needs to be known, and freeloaders like us don't have access to the detail ... and the devil is in the detail. << If one accepts the Strategis forecast, they're subscribing to the idea that cdmaOne operators are going to snub 1X.>> No ... not necessarrily ... they are more likely subscribing to the idea that cdmaOne/cdma2000 subscribers are going to snub data services. Same with GPRS/EDGE in GSM world where GPRS is disproportionately low (compared to ARC's) and GSM disproportionately high. ... at least that is my take on the Strategis numbers. Research houses are all over the place on data takeup. For good reason. Huge growth coming in China (GSM/CDMA) Latin America (CDMA maybe TDMA or GSM) ... data take up there ... big question mark ... US a question mark. - Eric -