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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bill Harmond who wrote (122114)3/29/2001 8:35:36 PM
From: H James Morris  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 164684
 
Billy, I think Amzns 'unrivaled front end' is in trouble!
If this keeps up someone will shove it up the 'back end'!
Billy, please tell us how many Amzn shares you have left, since you've been trimming them?
Gladman tells me your down to 100!
>3/29/01 6:23 PM ET

Underwriters of trade credit are becoming increasingly wary of insuring Internet retailer Amazon.com's (AMZN:Nasdaq - news) purchase accounts, insurance executives and credit managers indicate.

An executive at Amazon recently took the unusual step of meeting personally with executives of a large insurer to defend Amazon's balance sheet and to encourage the insurer to back the company's trade credit, according to a person who spoke on condition of anonymity. Meanwhile, another big insurer, AIG (AIG:NYSE - news), added Amazon to a list of companies whose credit it won't insure, according to two other people knowledgeable about the bookseller. AIG spokesman Joe Norton declines to comment, saying such information is proprietary

With the company burning cash quickly and the financial markets essentially shuttered to unprofitable Internet outfits, trade credit is Amazon's bedrock. While the company continues to insist that it is healthy and analysts say they've seen no indication credit is being withdrawn, the developments highlight the fragility of Amazon's financial health. Amazon stock recently was off 9 cents to $10.70, well below its 52-week high of $75.13.
Infrequent Flier?

According to a person familiar with the matter, Amazon Chief Financial Officer Warren Jenson recently flew to Paris to meet with officials of Euler, whose U.S. unit, Euler ACI, is the largest insurer of trade credit in North America. Euler has received numerous requests from Amazon vendors for insurance in recent months, says this person, who doesn't know whether Euler has agreed to insure Amazon accounts. Amazon declined to comment on the matter; Euler, saying internal information is proprietary, also declined to comment.

Meanwhile, another company, Kemper Insurance, won't insure Amazon accounts alone, though it would do so if it is packaged with the accounts of other, more stable companies, says an official at the company's London office.

Trade credit insurance is sometimes used by credit managers at companies -- in Amazon's case, the book publishers and electronics distributors and others that supply goods to the retailer -- to protect themselves should a client fail to pay its bills. A highly publicized debate has broken out on Wall Street over whether Amazon will be able to do just that in coming quarters; the company's ability to reach its goal of turning an operating profit by year-end now depends on maintaining favorable credit terms with suppliers, analysts say.
Dot-Com Meltdown

Other insurers have raised deductibles not just on Amazon but on all dot-com accounts to levels that make obtaining such insurance, which has become increasingly popular among credit managers in recent years, infeasible.

"If any sector is doing poorly, we will be more cautious," says Eva Taylor, marketing coordinator at insurance company NCM Americas. She declined to talk about company decisions regarding Amazon, but did say, "I know that they are having trouble."

Some credit managers at Amazon's suppliers cautioned that the lack of credit insurance doesn't necessarily mean suppliers will tighten credit screws on the company. Still, one says, "Trade credit insurance is important, and we'd all like the insurance for a major catastrophe." (In an earlier story, TheStreet.com reported that a major publishing company has declined to extend Amazon's credit terms.)

Val Venable, the chairwoman-elect of the National Credit Managers Association and a credit executive at GE Polymerland, says that such decisions by insurance companies are used as a litmus test of the health of a company's balance sheet. However, she says, "I don't let it sway my decision one way or another."

Still, when an insurer refuses to cover a retailer's accounts, it is essentially because the company's risk of insolvency is too high. At the very least, suppliers are unlikely to extend credit terms as a result of a lack of credit insurance, say most credit officials who have followed the Amazon situation.
Polarity

Bill Curry, an Amazon spokesman, says decisions by insurance companies haven't affected supplier relationships. "Not at all," he says. "I'm surprised you would ask the question, given our strong financial position.

"We are very open with our vendors," he continues. "At any given time this year -- and I say this year because that is what we have given guidance for -- we will have enough cash to pay our vendors."

The debate over the health of Amazon's balance sheet has polarized Wall Street in recent months. On one side, former Lehman Brothers debt analyst Ravi Suria, who recently moved to a hedge fund, contends the company faces serious liquidity issues in the coming quarters. Others, such as Merrill Lynch's Henry Blodget, say they are closely watching Amazon's cash position but believe the company can meet its own target of profitability on a limited basis by the fourth quarter of 2001.

Meanwhile, the company has long been under fire for what some say are obfuscating financial reports. The New York Society of Security Analysts has held a series of forums on the company's finances. The group has recently sent letters to CEO Jeff Bezos and to Amazon's directors, asking a series of questions about the company's accounting practices and financial guidance.



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (122114)3/29/2001 8:51:50 PM
From: H James Morris  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Billy, more good news for you. Now just keep those margin calls away, and you'll do fine.
>"There are some people out there that say, 'I see the tunnel and the light at the end of it and I'm going to stick to my strategy,'" he said. "But for most people that's a very difficult thing to do. Those people that have intestinal fortitude and stick with their strategy I think will be successful."



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (122114)3/30/2001 1:58:59 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
With what we know I agree. I believe (because of their unrivaled front end) that they will sucessfully leverage that investment over time, though, and that's where we differ.


I understand your point. Amazon has been able to create one of the best if not the best on-line buying site around. You and I differ in the aspect that I believe the value of that front end is not enough to service the debt and the number of distribution centers. I expect the debt to be removed with a filing of Chapter 11 and some of the excess DCs. Then Amazon will still exits providing a good front end and of course, some distribution.

I am a believer in the long term prospects of e-commerce for many products. I am also a believe that dual channel is required for most products. Some exceptions are media products such as books, video and music. I wish Amazon had stuck with those because I would not have been stupid enough to short them. The added lines and excessive discounting made be believe the fundamentals would bring the stock down and that did not happen soon enough. Amazon really had a decent model going when they sold books, then added mucic and finally video using to DCs on on the east side of the US and one on the west side. Entering foreign markets was not a bad idea either if they just would have stuck with their forte.