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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Koligman who wrote (19853)	3/29/2001 6:41:58 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 24042

Exactly right on the trading opportunity you lay out. WCOM was a perfect example in December that I almost pulled the trigger on but chickened out. Ended the year at 13 7/8, and rose to around 23 in the first 10 trading days of 2001. Gotta be quick though, and get out. One other caveat - it might be better to trade issues that have alredy warned, it stacks the odds a bit more in your favor. I think AT&T and FON also bounced back then along with the other weak sectors in tech.. There are lots that have warned in tech. In addition, the short interest is still huge in tech and that is where the most opportunities will appear, IMHO. Even though I don't want to commit too much cash to this one sector, i don't see another sector that can provide the short term trading opportunity. I guess we are looking at something like the "dogs of the dow" theory. I think it works much better in tech where the swings in stock prices can be big. It is a reason for playing stocks like NT, JDSU, SUNW, CSCO, JNPR and the list goes on. The best time to buy is probably today and tomorrow but next week may be a bit safer. IMHO, the short interest in these stocks is the additional factor that can cause a spike. Tax selling is probably close to over as well.The investors are likely to sell their outperforming funds to pay the tax bill (yea..i know my logic is twisted but that is probably how it plays out). It will be hard to pull the trigger on a buy in these stocks but I am going to take my chances. As you mentioned buying those that have warned helps the odds. Just saw a CNBC story also mentioning that a lot of good stocks are at great prices thanks to this window dressing, which ends tomorrow. What other sector has stocks so beaten up other than tech. At current prices on stocks like SUNW managers may be willing to wait it out and hope that things are a little better than the news we get bombarded with every day. That little bit may be enough to push the stocks higher. The aggressive sellers in these types will probably be out by tomorrow anyways. Like I said earlier, April is going to be very interesting and I am betting on a very good month.