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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (42566)	3/29/2001 6:57:33 PM
From: Prognosticator	Respond to of 64865

You're all paranoid about the administration being responsible for this stock market drop. How silly. Face it. The market is dropping because nobody (including you) is buying. Nobody is buying because nobody knows what the future holds. Nobody knows what the future holds because companies are now not saying anything to analysts because of the full-disclosure regulations. Analysts, having no information, are grasping at straws, digging through trash piles, and running scared with the pack, feeding back the uncertainty that is coming out of the news channels who are talking to the investors who are not buying. Positive feedback loops create unstable systems, and unstable systems oscillate from limit to limit. We will therefore bounce off zero some time in the near future, then ramp into another bubble, before crashing again, and then ramping again. Somebody is going to have to break this loop, or put another negative feedback loop around the entire thing or the market will cease to be an effective way to raise capital. Breaking the loop is simple: ban all Analysts. A negative-feedback loop would be to raise short-term capital gains to 70%, while eliminating long-term capital gains. The Fed tries its best to be a negative feedback loop with interest rates, but it has only one control variable with which to manage inflation, currency exchange, and the stock market. It is impossible to control three degrees of freedom with a single control variable. But What Do I Know (TM). P.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (42566)	3/29/2001 7:44:18 PM
From: Tom C	Respond to of 64865

I agree. The one thing I remember about Bush I was the stunning turn-around in popularity that happened as the election approached. After the Gulf War, Bush I had historically high approval ratings. He was considered unbeatable. Most high profile Dems didn't even consider running against those approval numbers but the huge deficit (thank you ronnie) and the slowing economy allowed a dem to win. All the Repubs blamed the loss on Greenspan. Bush II IMHO learned one thing from his Dad. While it's important to be popular, it's more important to be popular at the right time. The right time is close to the elections, not immediately after. From an investment point of view, the administration has been talking down the economy, when they start talking it up is the time to start investing in the market again.