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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (44748)	3/29/2001 8:31:11 PM
From: advocatedevil	Respond to of 70976

ST Trading Hmmm, one contrarian might agree that if "sentiment on the techs is so horrible" then "we've got to have a bounce soon." However, if there's a consensus with the above, then another contrarian might suggest that if "there has got to be a snapback" then we'll probably move lower. Catch-22? RE: "the SOX could go up 50% off recent lows" The SOX has been more or less range bound for the last four or five months. Who would have predicted last November just how ugly the sector would become, yet the SOX has held up amazingly well IMO. I think the majority of folks are holding their positions intent on not selling near the lows and thus missing the move back up. This indicates to me that although the news keeps getting worse, fear is currently minimal. I think that if we do get a bounce in the near term, it might get scary (for the shorts), but the upside might likely be limited as new investors consider how long it may take for earnings to catch up to valuations. On the other hand, the sector could continue weakening until something finally breaks, fear takes hold, and that long talked about capitulation finally takes place. RE: "I'm not at all confident of the safety of stop-loss orders" Yeah, one does run the risk of getting stopped out simply because of volatility. I like AMAT because it trades high volume in a wide daily range, but seldom moves more than 10% in one direction (per day). Other stocks with more volatility would require more generous stop limits. In any case, holding overnight always poses a risk of making limits useless. AdvocateDevil