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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: porn_start878 who wrote (34183)	3/30/2001 6:19:33 AM
From: fyodor_	Respond to of 275872

Max: t is very, very unlikely that things go that fast. I never saw a new platform being ramped so fast, so expecting it from AMD is even more unrealistic. Well, let's put things into perspective ;-) K6-2 ---> K7 transition -------------------------------------------------------- 81mm² --> 184mm² (+127%) cheap packaging --> expensive packaging no off-die SRAM --> off-die SRAM cheap platform --> expensive platform To go from 100% K6 to 100% K7 took, IIRC, 18 months. If you compare the changes above with my expectations for the Tbred ---> Clawhammer transition: ~80mm² --> ~100mm² slightly cheaper packaging costs due to fewer pins on the Clawhammer cheaper platform costs due to LDT instead of EV6 (fewer pins, easier traces, fewer signalling problems) 64bit marketing heaven Now, remember that the last 6 months of K6 production was solely because there was still strong demand for them (obvious, since the Athlons were so damned expensive). Taking this into account, along with the much more attractive transition (from a cost perspective), and I think it's very reasonable that Hammer production will overtake Tbred+Appaloosa production within 6-9 months of the Hammer introduction. It should be noted that I am completely ignoring mobile chips - both the K6-2+ now and whatever AMD will have at Clawhammer introduction. -fyo