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Gold/Mining/Energy : TVX Gold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: baystock who wrote (815)	3/29/2001 11:06:09 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 905

All advance stage deposits have degrees of risk. To me there doesn't seem too much permitting or litigation risk at Olympias on a relative basis. There is a little NIMBY activity, but how serious really? And going into less than perfect political regimes is what resource companies do all the time. In fact, what other choice do they have? Look at energy companies, they are really wild men, and Greece is tame compared to a lot of that. If producers are afraid of this situation, they are going to be avoiding just about everything on the planet, and in five years they are going to be down to the bare bones. In fact I think it's already too late on that score for the majors. And maybe they are so risk adverse that they may actually pass on world class low cost projects like this. It's kind of a depression mentality like Monkey Wards in the post war period, when Sears cleaned their clock. There has been so little effort to find or acquire future deposits in the last couple years, that sometimes I wonder myself. I'm preaching here, but it applies in this Hellas instance. The mining industry needs more of the Sears approach. And if we see one emerge, jump all over it. No, I think this one is too good to be a bust. I will admit that because of the ultra depressed price of gold, and the time constraints TVX is under, they might not be able to cut the best deal on any property deal they put together. But I think something is likely to happen. As you say, competent management will be the key, and that's still a bit unknown. The clearing price should clean up the converts, and leave something substantial for the stub shareholders. We will see, but this is a fantastic speculation here.

To: baystock who wrote (815)	3/30/2001 9:56:42 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 905

<The market cap including debt would be around $260 million.> I calculate based on enterprise value rather than market cap and debt. Look over their balance sheet, and you will find (or should, feel free to double check my work) US 46 million in liquid assets (cash) in excess of all current liabilities. Notes are 234-46 liquid assets plus mkt cap @ 88 (32) gives us a 220 million threshold. Also keep in mind that the notes are priced at par, but are trading at 60. TVX has the ability to buy in the open market, and others could actually tender for as much of that as possible at lower prices. How much would be tendered at say 80 is an unknown, but the 234 figure could be dented some. Don't forget about the quivers. This situation is dynamic, not static. The players are not just going to nap for the next nine months. Somebody will step up, it is just too compelling.