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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (7365)	3/29/2001 11:11:40 PM
From: alanrs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

That was my thinking exactly, and I am in at an average price of $45 (so far). I obviously was wrong, at least for now. (who knows, the soft landing may yet happen, and $.60 may be in the cards-the eternal optimist in me). I tend to buy early and sell early, something I'm working on. You may very well be right about another leg down. Cheers

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (7365)	3/30/2001 11:21:05 AM
From: SecularBull	Respond to of 10934

I'm not so sure that a recession is in the cards. It is the very talk of recession that has companies cutting back, not the reality of a recession. Perception can be changed very easily, and it is possible that a recession can be avoided. Remember, you can't fight the Fed. ~SB~

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (7365)	3/31/2001 2:05:43 PM
From: soraramoa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

Re: Back when I first seriously started looking at NTAP, Message 13746151 I thought they would make 0.60 in 2001, and I thought the Fed would engineer a soft landing, and I didn't see the impending cutbacks in IT spending, and I thought NTAP at 50 was a reasonable buy-in price. Re-reading it now, I realise I was hopelessly over-optimistic. Almost bought some, when they bounced repeatedly at 50. Since then, the situation has changed a lot. 1. we are going to get a recession, and all valuations will get compressed. The higher the PE, the more the compression. 2. that recession is being led by a severe downturn in business capital spending. 3. The companies that sell into the same market, and to the same clients, that NTAP sells into, have all warned, and seen forward earnings estimates come down, sometimes drastically. 4. therefore, I think NTAP is likely to warn also. No reason (other than wishful thinking) to believe they are immune to macroeconomic or market trends. So, a PE of 30 is a reasonable valuation. But, stocks spend as much time below reasonable valuation as they do above reasonable valuation. Given that the Nasdaq is one year into the hangover from a 5-year binge of overvaluation, we could get some unreasonably low valuations, an overshoot on the downside as severe as the recent overshoot on the upside. You mean that the stock could go up - or down? It is the same for me: I have no clue. Regards, a lurker