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To: mishedlo who wrote (12117)	3/30/2001 3:22:16 AM
From: pbull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

M, in all seriousness, I can't think of any reason to be long almost anything in tech here. You may view it as contrarion, but I just can't justify a long position in any chip maker, or anyone else in the supply chain of NT, LU, CSCO, etc. And this isn't exactly my first post on the subject. I'm trying to find a reason to be long a software company. I've mentioned ADBE as something I'd like to be long, maybe someday. But facts are facts, and the fact is that tech went to valuations never before seen on the planet. And down 75 percent, from what I can tell, just isn't a buying opportunity. It just isn't. Not when we're in a recession. Not during a cap ex freeze. There have been, and will be, bear market rallies in tech. But with regard to optical networking, B2B software, 3G wireless, and on and on and on, for the life of me I can't figure out how the investment justifies these meager cash flows. Where's the killer ap? It just doesn't exist yet. That's not to say that it never will. In fact, it probably will, at some point. Maybe I'm preaching to the choir here, I don't know. I respect your opinion. But in all honesty, I think a contrarion position would be to buy commodity chip makers hand over fist and be prepared to wait, maybe for a very, very long time. All we hear is that tech isn't dead. Well, maybe not. But it's comatose. It's in a coma. Greg says that he's just naturally bullish. Well, based on what we've seen since 1982, who wouldn't be? It's all we've ever seen, all we've ever known for nearly 20 years. Maybe this post will go down in infamy. Maybe two or three years from now this will be seen as the most ridiculous post in the history of SI. If SI even exists then. Please keep in mind that my views are just one person's opinion. I am wrong more often than not. But I just can't see how some quarter-trillion dollar company, that has done everything it can think of to make its balance sheet look good, trade at a PE of a zillion. PB