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To: robert b furman who wrote (169)	4/1/2001 12:31:30 AM
From: ken-l	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 470

robert, thanx for the reply !!! personnally, the current down trending feels much worse than that during 1998; IMO !!! this long term down trending has been torturing, and it seems like no end in sight !!! re: support @1800 - agree wholeheartedly .. it looks too easy !!! and since the mkt tends to go to the direction least expected, i wont be surprised to see the horizontal trend line support @1500, u mentioned, being tested <hopefully it holds - GGG> !!! regards and have a great wkend, auto

To: robert b furman who wrote (169)	4/1/2001 12:39:38 AM
From: ken-l	Respond to of 470

some thought on the COMPX so, compx gapped above the 'intraday' upper trend line of the down trending flag !!! it then descended lower to test the upper 'down' trend line during the 1st&2nd hour into the session !!!! the broken trend line was trading in conjunction with the current low @1794+/-, where it rebounded and formed a new intraday rising channel <bear flag>, which failed when the horizontal trend line resistance and the jan/feb down trend line @1850+/- was tested !!!! then, it broke the lower trend line of the new intraday bear flag during the last hour !!!! although it broke its intraday bearish flag in the last hour, it does not mean that it cannot ascend higher on monday !!! i suspect that the already broken lower trend line of the flag, which is trading in conjunction with both the S/T and I/T 61.8% retracement @1865+/- in the first half of the trading session on monday, maybe tested <bear flag is up trending channel, which mean the trend lines that form the channel ascend higher into the next time frame> !!! should it be able to break this resistance @1865+/-, it may ascend higher to perhaps retest the 38.2% retracement @1909+/-, and upper trend line of the intermediate term rectangle @1980+/- respectively !!!! furthermore, since it closed its daily chart with the indecision 'doji', so if it negates the intraday flag and closes at its high, it'll also be confirming its daily reversal; thus, increasing the probability of the next short term trend to be on the positive side !!!! anyway ... although compx ascended and closed slightly higher on friday, i SUSPECT that compx wont be able to morph the intraday up trend into a new short term up trending !!!! aside from the fact that it already broke its bear flag to the down side, the short term intraday MACD and RSI do not support the up trending <they both trended lower while the index was ascending higher> !!!! however, if what i suspect is correct, and compx cannot hold on to its intraday gain, and closes at its low, it'll negate the daily doji along with it; and the next short term trend ought to be more favorable to the negative side of the equation !!!!! thus, keep an eye on that lower trend line of the rectangle <some may prefer to call it 'double bottom'>, which should be trading in conjunction with the upper trend line of jan/feb down trending channel, and the 1994-95 linear up trend line, @1800+/- !!!! if this presumably strong support is broken, the selling may amplify !!!! furthermore, if u're looking at its weekly chart <nevermind the monthly chart; it has not even hinted the reversal pattern for gowd knows how long>, compx just also negated the 'doji' printed last week !!!! thus, i'm more inclined to believe that even if compx can morph its intraday rebound into the short term up trending, it wont last; and compx is heading lower in the intermediate term basis, UNLESS the weekly pattern is being negated !!!! some of ya may recall that i mentioned the 4th wave or the a,b,c corrective waves in the past 2 weeks !!!! in a way, it still looks like both !!! the last trading day could have been the 'c' wave ... or the entire rectangle which started 2 weeks ago could be the 4th wave, which instead of rising higher, it's been trading sideway !!!! but, like i said, regardless of which wave it actually is/was, this mess is NOT over !!!! by the way ... the intermediate term <2 weeks> rectangle is NOT a reversal pattern; and usually breaks out in the same direction of the preceeding trend !!!! S/T current down trending <also the previous up trending> 1980-1794 - 1936 - 1909 - 1887 - 1865 additional of broken wedge <previous up trending> - 1838 - 1794 - 1750 - 1723 - 1701 I/T 2028-1794 - 1973 - 1939 - 1911 - 1883 I/T 2244-1794 - 2138 - 2072 - 2019 - 1966 please note that all these retracements will be altered IF compx makes a lower low on monday !!!! as always ... just a humble opinion; and i'm usually wrong !!! regards and good luck, auto ps. should i make any mistakes, please feel free to correct me !!! TIA