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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (50682)	4/3/2001 12:18:52 AM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Skeet, I guess I'd put the odds at about the same level - for many of the same reasons. Why is '29-'33 the period the only bear market today's most vocal bears choose to overlay charts? Maybe because it's relevant? No, actually it's people who choose to do research and find multiple similarities between the 1920's and 1990's. Sure, we had a technology bubble, but we've had bubbles before and will have them again (hopefully/probably not any time soon) just as we'll have overreactions on the downside (like now, IMO). Perhaps some of the "leaders" even have farther to fall (CSCO to $10, anyone?). But, that doesn't mean there aren't good stocks worth buying today. If you can tell me one bubble that had the longevity of this one, level of participation as this one, the absurd valuations as this one, or as much financial gimmickery (and dilution of shareholders' interest) as this one, let me know. It ain't over, son. Like I've said before, there was a lot of money made in both value plays and emerging growth in the '70s, even though Polaroid and many other "Nifty Fifty" stocks never got back to their pre-'73 highs and even though the S&P didn't regain the '73-'74 lost ground until 1980. Your statement is crap. Adjust those numbers for the high inflation that occurred in the 70's and the opportunity cost of not being in fixed income. Some notable stocks you forgot were Avon, Woolworths, Wards, and many more. The 90's market was more like the Nifty Five Thousand. In the 73-74 bear market valuations you'd be hard pressed to even find a stock with a PE of 8. The 1974 bear market occurred after the S&P 500 went up about 70% over a period of nearly 3 years. In April of 1995 the S&P 500 stood at under 500 and subsequently tripled in less than 5 years and nearly quardrupled unadulterated from 1993 to 2000. Like all bear markets, the 73'74 bear market gave up all the gains from the bubble (it was a teenie weenie bubble by today's standards) and as such this market will give up ALL its gains. Once again, thanks for the middle America analysis.