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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (44805)	3/30/2001 11:20:25 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

well, we will go round and round. amat has NOT even outperformed the nas from the highs, OK? You can believe what you want, but the reason amat is outperforming since dec, is because it was getting crushed before the others were. Its very straight forward. It gets hammered first because it is a cyclical. The pros are playing it for the inevitable bounce as it MAY move first. It has nothing to do with ANY pro thinking we are getting a v shaped recovery. It concerns me that amateurs may still think that we will, because everyone else has given up. Whether you believe it or not, most of the guys on the street have become timers, and that is a BIG part of what we are experiencing. they care this much(0) about fundamentals. I can think of one well regarded analyst I know who I really think is a manic depressive. A complete nutbag. Good at pr though. The next time brcm is at 60 and going up, he will call for 200. But now, he thinks its overpriced.

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (44805)	3/30/2001 11:56:51 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Bzzzt! Next contestant Please! 8) Look at that same chart from 2001 to present. But go out just 10 weeks more from 50 to 60 weeks. AMAT is no longer down the same as the Nasdaq. Instead, it is down 40-45%, the NAS is closer to 60%. Your comparison to the NASDAQ would ONLY have relevance IF AMAT had unprofitable or barely profitable divisions titled "CMGI", "JDSU", "CSCO", "NTAP", etc that were making a tiny bit of money for their relative weight in AMAT sales. These "divisions" of the NASDAQ were selling at P/E's of 200 or more and PEGS in the statosphere. They also carried significant market capitalization weight. Hell, I saw yesterday that Cisco has lost an equivalent market cap to the current market cap of MSFT+Intel! At one time, PCLN had a larger market cap than the airlines it was selling tickets for! Looks to me that AMAT is trading in its new bull market upchannel... I know as I ALMOST sold some for trading Monday when it went above $50, but I was late, lazy and greedy thinking it might go higher and break-out... mix all three in and you see why I am a better long than trader! Almost sold some LRCX too at $29 but didn't.... Hard to talk about a "V" recovery when we've been in the bottom of a "U" for 5 months now as this chart shows... www2.marketwatch.com I think the question is "How long can you sell at $50 and buy back at low $40's before we do start higher?" Kirk out