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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (3641)	3/30/2001 3:11:35 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

We'll it was two weeks ago Friday we had the ARMS index breech 1.5 and today is the 5th trading day since the reversal last thursday. Time will tell if today confirms the reversal. Here is Hay's comments from either Monday or last Friday I will use the Bill O’Neil technique of checking to see if there is a significant follow-through on the 4 th to the 10 th day. He has found that it is virtually impossible to tell if a one-day reversal is any good until after the third following day of trading. But if the S&P 500, and I suppose he would also use the NASDAQ Composite, can rally by 1%+ in any of those follow-up 4 th to 10 th days, on increasing volume from the previous day, the chance of success is about 80% that a significant bottom has been reached. In other words, you can’t tell if the falling knife has indeed hit the ground until that confirmation.