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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maui_dude who wrote (131349)	3/31/2001 4:39:38 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Maui, RE: "It's not necessarily your strategy that made you the money (through increase in number of shares and cash position) as much as your prediction about how the market will behave and then investing accordingly." I think you are looking at this short-term, when you say, "made you money." My goal is a very long-term vision to acquire a lot of stocks. I use an economic downturn to take advantage of this. RE: "You probably wrote/bought options predicting the behaviour of the market (tied in with other investment decisions like you would like to hold on to stocks long-term, etc)." I see what you mean now. Yes, when I wrote options, I did make some assumptions about the overall market: what strike price, for how long, collar, no collar, etc. RE: "You are taking risks in any sorts of investment, even collars or covered calls by giving up loss in profits, if the stocks shoots up...dramatically." That would be my biggest risk. Although, I don't have a collar on the entire portfolio, only a portion. RE: "Having said that, in general, 'time' will buy you money." Exactly. Writing calls takes advantage of the time. RE: "I expect the market to not drop significantly from this point on." Never know. RE: "For companies like CSCO, SUN, where I dont see much of a downside" Careful with Cisco. Today, we looked into expanding our network at work, and the telco was offering free Cisco routers, as a kicker to get us to sign. I had made some estimates as to how much the market is glutted by Cisco routers, and I think I posted this on the Thread already? It was a really big number. I'll dig up an article on this too. (Having said that, I bought a bit of CSCO at 15+ yesterday.) As far as Sun goes, I tend to believe Sun is the type of company that will do well in a strong economy where pricing and costs aren't as big of an issue. However, I think this aspect works against Sun in a downturn. They are used to high margins (sensitive in an economic downturn) and seem to lack the discipline on costs. But they have a whiz team at finding new markets, so I tend to have faith in Sun's long-term proposition. But I just feel they are going to get hurt in the short-term (loosely used) as corporations shift their buying habits to a product mix that's Intel-style of pricing. In an economic downturn, corporations will be even more motivated to do this, I feel. RE: "For Intel and MSFT, I think there is more downside in the short term" I would check PC desktop demand before concluding this about MSFT. (I had been hoping someone would find more articles on this.) Not sure what's up over there. Is this real, or is it the new CFO? But as far as INTC goes, yes, I agree there is more downside risk in the short-term, especially with high fixed costs. A small drop in revenue can have a large impact on profits, which of course impacts the price unless these things are corrected. At times like this, I'm glad I have a long horizon as a long-term investor. RE: "I would probably write covered calls one month out just on the money. I might do that until June (since I expect Q2 to be bad).." I don't have a sense on the short-term market conditions at the moment, which is why I made my post. Although, I tend to believe Intel is going to have a lousy quarter. Things must be pretty bad for them to stop construction on 20 buildings. Regards, Amy J