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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (3644)	3/31/2001 9:11:28 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

John: On the SOXX we agree. If it breaks so goes the NAZ. I would think its contingent on INTC and IBM capital spending plans. If both announce cut backs (which they havent' to date even in the slow down) of $1B or so then the sector should take more of a correction. INTC has announced push outs of a FAB (or 2 I haven't been able to keep track) yet still kept the cap ex from the Oct forecast level. I don't think the 1st quarter #'s will be as much of an issue (unless they are really bad) as the forward guidance and cap ex spending. If they expect worse they will be cutting. On the O'Neil #'s - Friday the S&P and NAZ (not dow) were both over the 1% and the volume seems to make them qualify BUT one should be skeptical. This could be one of the 20% times when it doesn't work. One thing with statistics is they can give odds and help with risk / reward but you really need to know the #'s. I admit I don't, and the 20% failure could have occured in downtrending markets (or in downtrending markets the failure rate could be 60%), like we are in now. Tim