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To: mishedlo who wrote (12136)	3/31/2001 4:18:10 AM
From: pbull	Respond to of 13572

Attn. Mish, re: timely info: The following is not a post by me, but by another member of the SI community whom I have come to respect for his/her insight. How do you know I didn't write this? My posts don't contain misspelled words (unlike Bebop<g>). It's lengthy, but I think you'll find it worthwhile. I wouldn't bother bringing it to your attention if I didn't. "The markets are capitulating but the tech economy is in absolute freefall, very differnet than the 1998 capitulation. This is the last week of the quarter for most of these companies and very few companies are going to 1) put up decent quarters 2) not lower guidance and/or 3) not show major balance sheet deterioration. "A major software CEO called a sell-side analyst the other night just to ask if it was as bad for everybody else as it was for this leading CRM company (with a CEO who shares the company's name). Well, it is that bad. This is the by far, the worst IT macro-spending environment in the last 10 years, perhaps ever. Big ticket orders.... fogetaboutit. This is not that much unlike y2k except most bears are talking about excess capacity, not a one or two-quarter issue. "Telecom spending is approaching zero right now. Budgets aren't even being cut anymore, but everybody is back-end loading their spending in the year and nothing is happening in Q1. Juniper? Oh Worldcom is done spending on their IT backbone this year. See ya. "I could go on and on with the doom and gloom but the beauty of all of this is that its boom bust boom. Once the economy rights itself, we will go from no big orders to a couple of big orders and that will cause sequential acceleration in Q2 or Q3, even if the economy doesn't V." OK, now back to pbull. So, in other words, yes, everything tech is going to Hades in a bucket, but within a matter of weeks, it will accelerate again regardless of what happens to the economy. Let's pause here and think about that for a moment. As I said, I have a good deal of respect, historically, for this person's industry insights. If you want to check it yourself, PM me. Hope I didn't waste your time. Take care. PB