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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (44845)	3/30/2001 7:43:01 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, it's good to hear you are planning to buy. It is also useful to be reminded of the difficulties ahead. The '98 cycle was also abnormal. How we feel when we buy has no influence on the outcome. Gottfried

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (44845)	3/30/2001 7:54:28 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

Obviously equipment companies could go lower, for all the reasons you cite. No one knows when economic growth will reaccelerate. But AMAT's P/E based on forward estimates is equal to the long term growth rate. I'm not sure what the latest estimates on Nasdaq P/E ratios are, but I 'm pretty sure they're a lot higher than that, which shows why the relative strength the stock has shown lately is justified. That having been said, I'm still a long way from fully invested.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (44845)	3/31/2001 10:57:46 AM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

Based on Thursday's close, the P/E of the Nasdaq 100 appears to be 100, based on adding individual stock prices and dividing by total earnings. This would be even higher if it were based on forecast earnings. Note also that when P/Es of the 81 profitable companies are ranked from highest to lowest, AMAT is 7th from the bottom. This seems to support the idea that AMAT's relative strength has been justified. eufinancial.com eufinancial.com eufinancial.com That having been said, I do admit that earnings forecasts can and do change.