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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Jackson who wrote (69405)	3/30/2001 8:15:28 PM
From: REH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

I found myself a lone BULL two years ago (around $ 35.00 pre-split) and i really get the same feeling now. No doubt this will be a roller-coaster as we go trough the legal trials but I believe Rambus will prevail (or the patent-law will continue to be re-written to a point where there's not much protection left) reh/long

To: Bill Jackson who wrote (69405)	3/30/2001 9:07:10 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Bill Jackson; Re: "Well, I did not know if it was in/out, but I figured they would indeed have that internal competition, just in cases RDRAM did get cheap and good in time for the X-box hardware freeze." The industry's memory system designers aren't running around thinking "maybe RDRAM will get cheap soon". The memory makers have been telling us for 2 years that RDRAM would never get as cheap as SDRAM. Now when the memory makers tell us that something is going to be cheap very soon, we ignore them (because they are always exaggerating in that direction), but when they tell us that something is never going to be cheap we pay very close attention. They've also been telling us that DDR will be as cheap as SDRAM after it ramps, and sure enough, DDR is already considerably cheaper than RDRAM, which has resulted in DDR dominating the graphics card market since early last year. Since then, it has been obvious to hardware designers that the next mainstream memory would be DDR, and that RDRAM was dead, dead, dead. For people who are not part of the industry, and who's job does not require them to know what memory types are going to be available and what the cheapest type will be in the next 6 to 18 months, it is not even yet apparent that DDR is the next mainstream memory type. A lot of the companies and individuals involved with this put out disinformation, and it is not easy to navigate your way through it. In particular, Rambus and Intel have told people that RDRAM is going to be the next mainstream memory, and that has convinced a lot of people to buy RMBS stock. After the whole thing becomes obvious, and RMBS is reduced to being a penny stock, mom and pop are going to sue Rambus for misleading them about the technological trend that was obvious to those of us in the industry. Who knows, maybe they'll sue Intel as well. But if you really want to know which memory types are going to be the next mainstream standard, just look at what memory types are going into the next generation chipsets. Here's the total number of design wins for SDRAM, DDR SDRAM, and RDRAM from all the companies that have chipsets already in production or still in development: DDR SDRAM SDRAM RDRAM ALi 16 3 1 AMD 3 3 0 ATI 1 0 0 IBM 0 1 0 Intel 20 3 6 Micron 1 4 0 Nvidia 0 1 0 Opti 4 0 0 ServerWorks 4 1 0 SiS 20 3 0 VIA 24 7 0 VLSI 1 0 0 -- -- -- TOTAL 94 26 7 users.erols.com Note that a lot of the chipsets in the above list are no longer made, or never even saw production, particularly in the SDRAM list, but also several of the DDR and RDRAM designs are TU. (For example, ALi canned its lone RDRAM chipset, and the Micron DDR designs aren't in production.) But if you want to pick through the list and eliminate the obsolete chipsets you're still going to end up with a list where DDR dominates RDRAM. (And of course SDRAM, being the current mainstream memory, dominates both DDR and RDRAM.) -- Carl