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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (42612)	3/30/2001 9:40:45 PM
From: techtonicbull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

Wall Street Week Mike Holland likes Sun Microsystems CSCO and Oracle

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (42612)	3/30/2001 9:51:41 PM
From: Prognosticator	Respond to of 64865

Of course, you may be right. He may grow up and think he knows everything like most of the adults around here. Au contraire John: I believe a definition of being Adult is that you know you don't know everything, what you defined is a Sophomore. Chic is somewhat sophomoric, but his prognostications are entertaining, and, since I know I don't know everything, he may well be right. P.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (42612)	4/1/2001 6:30:41 PM
From: chic_hearne	Respond to of 64865

the sad thing is that IF there's another 30% fall in the dow, THEN a great many houses of cards could TIP OVER. It's the tipping over that causes the problem. John, I think you just nailed the most disturbing issue going forward for this market. Another 30% will represent damn near the equivalent of 1 years worth of GDP being wiped out from the market high in a very short period of time. If anyone thinks this will not have a material effect on the economy, they're just fooling themselves IMHO. I think the market has been the leading driver of the economy since about 1995 when Greenspan started to let things really get out of control. Now we are going to find out just how devastating this past recklessness will be as the market goes down. We are currently in a state where the dynamics of a bubble imploding have taken over. Rate cuts can't help, soothing words from wall street won't help, tax cut doesn't matter, etc. The bubble is well on its way to imploding and that's all that's important. A few days ago I was discussing the South Seas bubble of 1720 that went down 98% and asked why it imploded. The best answer I got was "the why was the same as in any investment mania." Recognizing we are in a imploding bubble and studying the history of bubbles is the best thing one can do now. I'm personally getting bored of talking about the state of the economy and how it's not that bad and the market won't fall much farther. The state of the economy isn't what's driving the market now. What's driving the markets now is the dynamics of an imploding bubble. What I find interesting is speculating on the effect to the economy when the house of cards does tip over. Of course you know I think it will have a very significant impact, negatively. Way overweight treasuries and cash. Waiting for the buying opportunity that isn't here yet. IMHO. ha ha, me too. I'm losing confidence in my ability to play the markets now and going with a bigger cash percentage. The laws of little numbers make things too volitile for me now. Remember back when Crisco went up one point and that meant 1.5%? Now one point is worth 8%. There are a few stocks that look like decent buys here, but I'm not biting. The house of cards has not tipped over yet, which is very disturbing going forward. At some point when it gets ugly, Greshams Law will ultimately take over as the bad stocks drive down the good. I think we're a minimum of 1 year away from it being safe to go long, but realistically more like 2-3 years or longer. If a stock looks like a good value now, what will it look like in a year when the company is unprofitable? I'm not touching anything unless it's under book value. This may seem extreme, but it will keep me from doing anything that would look incredibly dumb in hindsight. When the house of cards does tip over, I'll look more closely at some longs over book value. But to go real long, I'll need to see the excesses of the economy wiped out and this hasn't even begun yet. Due to the loose money FED policies, Greenspan and company will likely drag this out far longer than any of us are speculating. It's the choice between a deliberate quick collapse or a long period of time where the excesses are being held together with bandaids. I can't imagine anyone stepping up to the plate to do the right thing, so this market will likely be on life support for sometime with bandaids being applied here and there. chic