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To: Red Dragon who wrote (958)	3/31/2001 12:11:27 PM
From: pass pass	Respond to of 3294

The hope I cling on to is when the capex spending comes back, optics will be first on the shopping list because no better technology has been invented yet.

To: Red Dragon who wrote (958)	3/31/2001 4:43:55 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 3294

Pat mentions that "those carriers with access to capital will continue to spend," but the whole point of the Suria interview is that capital will be much harder to come by for most, if not all the telcos, when compared to the easy cash available in '96-'00. The glimmer of hope we all cling to is what capex spending does occur will be probably be preferentially devoted to "cutting edge" technology that leads to increased efficiency and quick returns on investment. If so, companies like Ciena (exclusively in DWDM space), JDSU (no exposure to legacy SONET) and Juniper (almost exclusively in high end router space) should do better than the Nortels, Lucents, etc. Does it matter where carriers get money or that they get it? Yes, it has become more difficult, but since that report was written (thank you gbh for pointing out its age), interest rates have dropped several times and are likely to come down even further. I'm not wishing on stars when I say carriers with money will continue to spend. I'm merely passing on what I heard at OFC. Pat