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To: JRI who wrote (88242)	3/31/2001 11:51:31 AM
From: IceShark	Respond to of 436258

You chart boyz, .... but it seems to keep working! Where is that oosik? -g-

To: JRI who wrote (88242)	3/31/2001 12:09:36 PM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 436258

responce to your Very valid points 1)Agree there is technichal damage that wont get fixed easily. However Qcom is not a stock that has been easily traked by TA. It had two false breakouts, one recently in the saucer and one that cought me last april when it broke above 134. I think false breaks and bottoms are the norms for Qcom so it is not a good stock to base trades on TA. 2)If you look back further on a chart the 200(50) area has been where the real BREAKout of Q ocured. The 50 point is really the point before the abyss. There was a good 6 week period Q took to get through 200 in 1999. So I agree that the chart dont look great, but if it is to bottom 48-52 would be the Maginot line. 3)Actually Qcom has a Manopoly so they are not really part of the same supply chain. Furthermore Qcom has two advantages 1)CDMA as a percent of totall mobile devices is increasing. So even if the PIE isnt growing they are getting a bigger slice. 2)They are developing products that will be a nessesity for carrier's and manufacturer's to reighn in their cost's, and raise revenue. Does that mean that they may not slow some, of course not. However Their visibility is quite good in comparison to most. They also underestimated rev's for IPR last quarter which baisicly guarentee's they will make this quarter. The risk is next quarter. I would also mention that CHINA deployment earnings are not factored into anybodies estimates so there is a cushion if other markets falter. As for the debate if CHINA deploys CDMA, if it were a bet I could make at Vegas I would bet the house on it. KOREA, JAPAN will be 100% CDMA and the US will be close within 3 years how could CHINA not at least deploy dual systems to allow their manufacturer's to compete? China builds its 10 Million user CDMA network because they have no choice if they want to export mobile phones. Therfore there is a nice upside with high probability. There is also a huge move in INDIA as well. These countries are building Wireless out of nessesity not luxury like in the west because there are NO hardline systems in place(plus they are to expencive. So in short Q could moderate 3Q outlook but it will not be a blow up like whats been happening elsewhere. Personally I dont believe it will occur. 4)Cant argue this point, BUT if you bought the retest at 50 and stoped at 46 it would be a good place to make a stand if you want to go long.