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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (3407)	3/31/2001 2:37:53 PM
From: Mad2	Respond to of 3543

Re: Telecom is all about supply/demand. If the demand continues to grow then maybe a disaster will be averted. One day however the telecom industry will follow the path of the swteel industry (ugh!) as the same principles apply. Both are fixed cost business. In the case of steel, bond holders keep excess supply in the system because restructuring debit and operations is the only way to recover any value. In telecom, when growth falters then competition will chase the last dollar of revenue (because variable cost is so low). It will end with default on bond payment, but as in the case of the steel industry they will restructure and go on. I used to think capital intensive business was attractive because of the barrier to entry. But when capacity exceeds supply all that fixed cost becomes a barrier to exit Its just a matter of time. mad2

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (3407)	3/31/2001 9:37:24 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

Perhaps this is true, but I know one hedge fund manager who tried: "No Wall Street analyst saved professional investors more money in 2000 than Ravi Suria, the convertible bond strategist who just left Lehman Brothers to join Stan Druckenmiller at Duquesne Capital Management." Yes, we know him well, one of the unsung heroes who tried to save them (the new economy sheep who were "in for the long"-whatever that meant), but many did not listen and they have perished out of greed and ignorance. Where are they know, the prognosticators of SI? Actually come to think of it that might make a good SI discussion topic, LOL.