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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (41895)	4/1/2001 1:57:14 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 56535

Max, there are a couple of big impediments to our badly needed bear market really. You already mentioned the SOXX, but the other component is the Optical and Net Equipment sectors. That interview with Suria was a major setback to a rally in that sector. I think the smaller guys will rally, but the behemoths like JDSU and CSCO may be laggards. As for more warnings coming out, that does not concern me so much. I think most of the smart money has already priced in bad news. If you think what a CEO said was true 2-weeks ago is still true today, you deserve to get dropped like a rock when the stock sinks on another warning. On the plus side, software and storage are really oversold. Consulting may also be slightly oversold. Those are very strong sectors. The box sector has been holding up quite well, but who knows when that will come back down to reality. The bottom line is that we need a major shot in the arm to get the rally going. Maybe it will be a statistic that is better than expected, maybe it will be a brokerage house, or maybe it will be something else. One thing I'd like to add - our local economic inidcators bottomed in December. They've been up the first 2-months of the year, and the trend is expected to continue. Our economy is closely tied to the auto industry, but we've also got a diversified base of retail, banking, distribution, office furniture, and housing. I know that's just for our area, but most companies here are increasing hiring and layoffs are pretty negligible. It may be what Greenspan was saying - the slowdown is mostly inventory related. Another thing - tech is only about 15% of the economy at best, but it seems to make up about 75% of people's perception of the health of the economy.