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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jill who wrote (35100)4/1/2001 11:28:58 AM
From: Venkie  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Jill
If you hv Napster...download Richard Thompson" Persuasion".



To: Jill who wrote (35100)4/1/2001 12:31:53 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
<<In sum, the behavior of the US economy in the past five years seems to fit the description of a textbook Austrian School business cycle about as tightly as the glove fit O.J.'s hand. The dot.com investment frenzy and the miles of empty bandwidth smack of what the Austrians refer to as malinvestment. Much of this malinvestment would not have taken place had the Fed not created as much credit as it did in recent years. According to the Austrians, increased doses of created credit now will only postpone, at best, the inevitable liquidation of these malinvestments that must take place in order to set the stage for a new business expansion based on the solid foundation of saving, or transfer credit. Rather than the Fed printing more money, a policy option the Austrians would recommend to encourage saving and profitable investment is a cut in marginal income tax rates. This might not eliminate an economic downturn, but it would mitigate the severity of a downturn.>>

Paul Kasriel
Head of Economic Research
Northern Trust
________________________________________________________

Jill: Great link....I heard Paul speak up here in Chicago early in the year and he predicted we had a good chance of 'a soft landing'. Yet, he contended that the FED's actions exacerbated our economic cycles (gives the US economy higher highs and lower lows than we really need). He even went as far as saying it might be wise to consider abolishing the FED <G>...I'm sure he and Jim (the Poultry Man) would connect on a number of levels. Paul Kasriel was an entertaining economist (quite unique, IMO)....He was concerned about the amount of debt that Americans were living with. He also predicted that Greenspeak would act aggressively in the first half of the year to try to jump start the economy. The jury's still out on the FED and as you know I'm NOT one of their biggest fans. IMHO, they should step up to the plate this week and cut rates another 50 basis pts. There will be plenty of economic evidence to justify this. The market needs reassurance, investors need more confidence, and corporate purchasing execs need access to cheaper capital and motivation to improve 'their visibility'...=)

Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Best Regards,

Scott



To: Jill who wrote (35100)4/1/2001 8:36:21 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 65232
 
Austrian School is very interesting
agreed with almost everything put forth
esp the distortion effect from Fed activism

been thinking a lot in last couple days about inflation and this economic environmt
I have routinely been chanting
"fight a ghost of inflation and you get deflation"
I think I have been too simplistic
you get a recession, which could in its early phase be accompanied by some temporary inflation
and that inflation might spook the Fed into abruptly breaking from their course of easing rates
this error was repeated all thru the 1970's and early 1980's

too many forces out there now can result in temporary rise in inflation:::
companies might hold onto excess workers, and compensate with higher prices
excess capacity is EVERYWHERE, and companies are gonna try to pay for it with product price increases
innovation is on hold as tiny companies are shut out for a while
(IPO and VC money is scarce if nonexistent)

here is a funny example of rising prices amidst shrinking business
in Pittsburgh the population is not growing
but welfare and schools and police/fire continue to cost
so property taxes were hiked between 40-80%

I am watching gold and related stocks

I think Greenspan now must make some very difficult choices, as a direct result of several colossal errors

should he: continue to cut rates aggressively, thus ushering in ANOTHER artificial boom phase in 2002 ???

or: show monetary restraint with continued gradual rate cuts, thus allowing the real excesses to work out, but ushering in a deeper more prolonged recession ???

/ jim