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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Temple Williams who wrote (73775)	4/1/2001 1:38:20 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>a rally within a week or two that challenges old highs< Are you talking about all time highs or something like the Jan high? TIA Gersh

To: Temple Williams who wrote (73775)	4/1/2001 4:14:36 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I think people place too much importance on what Bush and Chambers and others are saying. Consumer confidence and spending is decided by: 1. whether people have a job 2. how secure they feel that they'll still have a job next year 3. whether the value of their house and stock portfolio is going up or down. There is also a 1-3 year lag time between when wealth goes down, and when people decrease spending. That is, little blips like October 1998 don't affect spending, because they are over so soon. But we are 12 month's past the Nasdaq peak, and recovery is nowhere is sight. I think the stock market isn't going to recover this year, and housing equity will probably follow stocks down, and job security is steadily decreasing, so I see a steady erosion of consumer confidence and spending through 2001. Falling consumer spending means company's fundamentals are going to continue to erode. And, that mountain of sideline money isn't coming back into stocks, until the fundamentals bottom. Support at 30.5 for TXN is still weak. Even if we get a bounce here, I think there are even odds, of whether we see 20 before we see 50 again. The SOX has gone sideways for the last 4 months, but the fundamentals of semis are a lot worse than 4 months ago. Something's got to give: either we get some good news in the next couple of months, or the SOX will break below 515.