To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (37763 ) 4/2/2001 1:25:37 PM From: James Strauss Respond to of 50167 Can any one make an effort to explain this? Numbers tell me a different story, a little different script from the present carnage of the markets. The GDP figures of the 4th quarter 2000 have been revised to 1%, the economy has been week all along during the last two quarters of 2000, but the sales and the profit numbers of the top companies show a slightly different picture. In year 2000, 817 companies that make the Forbes 500 lost market cap by 20.5%, the Market Value 500 in 2000 is 10.7 trillion lower by -20.5% and far lower than +15.7%, average 15-year growth rate. Now this is good enough and makes the bear case looks good, however, the tricky part is the next one. The total employment of these companies 817 companies that form the Forbes 500 increased to 24.9 million, an increase of 4.1% over 1999 a rate that is 1% higher than 15 years growth rate of increase of employment. Ike: The employment strength has also been perplexing for for me... Then I realized that employment numbers are lagging indicators... At the peak of a cycle everything looks great even while some economic deterioration is beginning to take place... Recently unemployment went from 4.0% to 4.2%... Still very low by any standards of bull or bear markets... But should start moving towards the 5.0% area in the months to come as layoffs begin to impact consumer demand negatively and pressure more layoffs... As I type this the Dow is still above 9600, the Nasdaq and SP-500 are doing battle at 1800 and 1150 respectively... The economy still is showing resiliency the way it did at the end of the Carter administration before it went into its big funk in 1981-82... Then in August of 82 the market took off for a 20 year ride... The difference then was 10% unemployment and Ketchup was considered a vegetable... : > Now, more people are working and it's unlikely that we'll see 10% unemployment... But, 5.00% to 6.00% is a possibility if the FED doesn't get cracking fast... Jim