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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (4640)	4/1/2001 10:25:21 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 52237

(Bottom) It really just depends what you consider an accurate historical frame of referance....was the period from 1995-2000 in any way normal?....if so, perhaps a bottom can be justified here.... If you think that normal valuations are better found by looking pre-1995, or, in incorporating the entire history of the Naz (and/or Dow)....then the Naz still ain't cheap... One thing makes sense to me: That we should overshoot on the downside as we did to the upside. regardlesss of what the right frame of referance is.......perhaps it won't be an equal deal...but should be a decent overshoot nonetheless... From a points perspective, I don't think we have overshot yet, even if one takes the trac that 1998 values are the benchmark... From a time perspective, we definently are nowhere close the equaling the moonshot from 1995 on....or (almost continuance) bull run since 1982...this bear has been, in fact, relatively brief...and has basically put us back to 1998... Given I think we are in line to go back to valuations pre 1995 (or, pre-bubble) I would say, then I conclude that the worst is not over yet. (Of course, this theory allows for bear market rallies at any time <G>)