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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NucTrader who wrote (73827)	4/1/2001 10:41:38 PM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Garzarelli view........ Stock market analysis for March 30 One piece of good news we got this week was the number of bullish advisors (one of our indicators) declined to a level of 56.3% -- the lowest level since November 1999. The four-week average declined to 60.2% from a high of 68.8% in February, 99 and 62.7% at the beginning of this year. This contrarian indicator has surprisingly not budged much through the bear market. In order for this indicator to be ranked bullish, this level would have to decline to below 40%. Based on other measures -- consumer confidence from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan rose in early March. This is surprising given the stock market decline, rising unemployment claims, more layoff announcements, abundant earnings warnings, and consumer net worth posting its biggest year-over-year decline since 1974. Another measure, however, ABC's weekly measure of consumer comfort is clearly going down. We believe the confidence levels will be down over the next few months giving the Fed more reason to continue easing. At this writing, the S&P 500 is down 25% from its high, the Dow 16%, and the NASDAQ 64%. It is taking a while for the market to turn around. The Fed easing and accelerated tax cuts take awhile to work through the economy. Even with the 46 central bank easings, world liquidity is slowing -- partly explaining the decline in stock markets around the world. We recommend buying stocks "on sale" in the right industry groups (outlined in our newsletter). As we mentioned last week, since 1933, the stock market has advanced 30% on average over the 12 months after the third rate cut.