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Pastimes : Book Nook -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Lloyd who wrote (166)	4/2/2001 7:20:20 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 443

Don, the more I read the more convinced I am that the 1929 crash did not "cause" the Great Depression. One factoid I am mulling over is that even at the lows of 1929 after the crash, many of the big blue chip stocks were still trading at split adjusted multiples of their 1923 price. You probably saw that table that Cramer constructed comparing the prices of the Nasdaq 100 compared to - I think it was 1998 - and if you adjust for the splits they are still significantly ahead. Even if the price of your stock has gone down by two thirds from its high if you are holding three shares you're even. Anyway, someone constructed a similar table in 1929-1930 - it's clearly a case of those that bought at the blowoff top getting whacked but those who bought before the top coming out fine, at least until the bottom fell out in 1930. What happened, happened in mid-1930, and I am still working my way through that. Cascading bank failures which seem to have a lot to do with foreign money being pulled out. Japan's problems are not caused by the stock market, per se. It's hard for me to say that Japan has problems - I don' t know what percentage of people in the world would gladly trade their place in life for life in Japan but it's got to be very high. I am working on a medical malpractice case that involves treatment of a rare disease that sort of exists at the overlap of hematology, oncology, and immunology - the research is new and you can't find it in books, you have to get it from medical journals. I've read literally hundreds of abstracts and dozens of research papers published in journals. If I divide the papers into hard research vs. so-so research, more hard research is coming from Japan. It amazes me how good it is. Anyway, we all know the Japanese bought a ton of real estate all over the world, including here right before the S&L crisis caused real estate to go bust in the late 1980's, and in Southeast Asia, and there was a bust there, too, or maybe several of them. So Japanese banks are carrying a lot of non-performing loans. And they are unable to attract foreign investment. But the economy seems just stagnant to me. So what? Stagnant isn't bad when there's a decent standard of living.