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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (4653)	4/2/2001 12:18:28 PM
From: dawgfan2000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

KLAC, AMAT, INTC, MU getting whacked now. SOX close to rolling over. It's moving in for a test. Haven't noticed too many comments today on Japan closing down last night, breaking the 13K level by 62 more points. Was looking for a rebound/positive move. MSFT moving strongly. Can't figure this out...

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (4653)	4/2/2001 12:19:54 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

DMP- Gotta take the other side of the trade here...banks, AMEX are giving lousy forward outlooks.....the blip up in manufacturing could be a headfake, as much as a turn....given that banks are now going to be cautious lending going forward (despite rate cuts)...I think a near-term recovery is not going to happen here.. The next leg-down to this thing....is the American consumer beginning to save.....the last few months, the American consumer has been in high denial of the massive loss of wealth.....the piling on of debt the last couple months (on top of negative savings)...simply can't continue....Folks will start saving now...that it's clear the markets aren't going to come back strong.... A 5% bite out of consumption spending (which would only get back to break even....out of debt..for the average consumer)....would be enough to keep things dreary for a while.... In an environment in which consumers are unwilling to take on more debt, and lenders are cautious......Fed rate cuts are mitigated in their effect....the "pushing on a string" scenario.... Looks like I got lucky....I shorted more spoos about 1/2 hour ago...I still see more risk in being long here.....btw- I am "only" short high-flyers like Qcom and Chkp which I think have not come down as much as everything else....(also have some SPY and QQQs too)