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Technology Stocks : BEA Systems (BEAS) - Undiscovered Growth Stock -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (1720)	4/2/2001 5:55:44 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Respond to of 2477

Next support is 1750, then 1723, then 1701. Major support is in the mid 1400's. If it goes there, Beas will be a teenager for sure (at best). I'm guessing it will re-test the 22 level near term before any tradable bounce. If 22 doesn't hold... In general I am looking for a rally this week at some point. Steve D.

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (1720)	4/3/2001 10:44:17 AM
From: tinkershaw	Respond to of 2477

BEA Systems certainly is not immune to that and could very well see the trough in their cycle occur in the next quarter or two before recovering. How much of that is priced in or remains to yet be priced in is up in the air at the moment. I hate talk of stock TA but what the heck. BEAS is right now priced to meet expectations, but, with the less than 50% risk that it will not. Just intuition. If BEAS were to miss in a Q or 2, particularly after Mr. Coleman's reiteration after reiteration that BEAS would not only make next Q, but next year as well + some, plust great visibility going forward, BEAS hits the teens. But then again Rat put the call in at $20, and I picked up a good chunk at a hair above $22 today, just missed the high $21s. If recent BEAS history holds the stock should bounce back strongly. But according to my more fundamental analysis calculations, BEA at this price, on a 5 year basis is now more undervalued that BRCM, JNPR, and AVNX and sits in my #2 position. Since I don't like #1 BEAS is where I went. Tinker Tinker

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (1720)	4/3/2001 10:44:29 AM
From: tinkershaw	Respond to of 2477

BEA Systems certainly is not immune to that and could very well see the trough in their cycle occur in the next quarter or two before recovering. How much of that is priced in or remains to yet be priced in is up in the air at the moment. I hate talk of stock TA but what the heck. BEAS is right now priced to meet expectations, but, with the less than 50% risk that it will not. Just intuition. If BEAS were to miss in a Q or 2, particularly after Mr. Coleman's reiteration after reiteration that BEAS would not only make next Q, but next year as well + some, plust great visibility going forward, BEAS hits the teens. But then again Rat put the call in at $20, and I picked up a good chunk at a hair above $22 today, just missed the high $21s. If recent BEAS history holds the stock should bounce back strongly. But according to my more fundamental analysis calculations, BEA at this price, on a 5 year basis is now more undervalued than BRCM, JNPR, and AVNX and sits in my #2 position. Since I don't like the stock in the number #1 position (not necessarily gorilla stuff) BEAS is where I went. Tinker