re: The Fate of IS-136 TDMA
"After all the contention for technology market position, that customer indifference may be the truth and the irony of it all."
>> CDMA, GSM Vie To Convert TDMA Markets
Peggy Albright
April 2, 2001
Wireless Week
Every year around this time, representatives of the various technology camps post their latest subscriber numbers, always with the message that the figures affirm the competitiveness of their industries.
The CDMA Development Group says its subscriber growth indicates continued demand for its near-term ability to offer faster data services, its graceful migration path to 3G and its assortment of operational benefits.
The Universal Wireless Communications Consortium says its growth figures show that operators see an economy of scale and multiple options for technology evolution gained from TDMA's ties to the GSM world.
The GSM camp is such a global powerhouse that it hardly has to explain its market presence. It has captured 70 percent of the worldwide market already, with 475 million subscribers, according to numbers released last week by the GSM Association. And there's still a good chunk of analog networks out there, waiting to be converted someday.
The fight for new business in the analog base, competition for contracts to help 2G operators advance to 3G options, as well as 3G deployments in new spectrum mean many more battles for market share will be fought. But what was once a battle over 2G business now is turning into a battle between CDMA and GSM to convert legacy systems, including TDMA's, to 2.5G and 3G. That's because despite TDMA's growth, it eventually will become obsolete. Existing TDMA operators already have begun adapting their systems to future technologies. According to the EMC World Cellular Database, more than one-third of the world's TDMA base already has committed to moving toward GSM.
For many in the United States, that path was made clear after AT&T Wireless announced it will put GSM, GPRS, EDGE and eventually wideband-CDMA on its networks. Cingular Wireless committed itself to EDGE for its TDMA networks, which means it must install GPRS. Whether it will install GPRS in the meantime as a data option remains to be seen.
As these and other companies make their choices, opportunists are watching.
"You continue to see TDMA operators ask and then answer the question, 'Where do we go from here?'" says John Hoffman, senior director for technology evolution at the GSM Association. "There seems to be a continued convergence between TDMA and GSM. For most operators it is probably a fairly easy migration, as opposed to migration to CDMA. But that's not a given. It's still a lot of work. It's an overlay network no matter how you decide to do it."
Latin America will be one battleground in this technology war. The CDMA industry, led by Qualcomm and the CDG, has targeted the region as the next frontier to win.
But one analyst with extensive background in the Latin American market thinks CDMA carriers face an uphill battle because many top European GSM companies, such as Telefonica and Telecom Italia, already have alliances there. GSM has the momentum, says Carles Ferreiro, program leader for the mobile communications group at Frost & Sullivan. "I think it's becoming increasingly difficult to make a case for CDMA for operators in the region," he says.
Not everyone would agree. Elliott Hamilton, an analyst at the Strategis Group, believes some TDMA businesses may decide that since they have to pick an entirely new platform anyway, they may as well choose CDMA to get its better data, operational and evolutionary features. "I believe that CDMA has a better position now to break into the Latin American ranks," Hamilton says.
In addition to gaining the CDMA service features, a TDMA operator can save its existing ANSI-41 core network and go straight to a cdma2000 installation. That could save a huge chunk of money. To go the GSM route, a TDMA operator would have to rip out its ANSI-41 network and convert it to the core network GSM runs on, called GSM MAP. Then the operator would have to add GPRS, because GSM MAP is not a packet-based network, before adding EDGE.
"Considering the network issue, it seems like a logical choice," says Jim Takach, director of advanced programs at the CDMA Development Group.
Nevertheless, the UWCC believes the migration path it shares with GSM and the economies of scale it gains by teaming with the global powerhouse will enable it to offer seamless voice at reasonable prices. "The customer will not care if it's a TDMA or GSM phone," says Chris Pearson, executive vice president of the UWCC.
After all the contention for technology market position, that customer indifference may be the truth and the irony of it all.
Cellular Technology Subscribers As Of February 2001 (In millions)
GSM: 475.0
CDMA: 87.7
Japans PDC: 51.6
TDMA: 70.3
Analog: 66.1
Source: EMC's World Cellular Review and GSM Association <<
- Eric - |
