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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (12164)4/2/2001 3:13:10 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13572
 
next sector which will be a good short -- REITS

the decline in real estate is this autumn's headline
vacancies are rising for commercial real estate
layoffs (then housing) are rising in employment arena

/ jim



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (12164)4/2/2001 4:26:07 PM
From: Uncle Frank  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13572
 
>> are your underlying shares descending faster than covered calls that protect them ??

You bet. But covered calls aren't intended to be a hedge, just an income generating play. In the ideal case, the premium will decline as a result of time erosion, not as a result of the underlying crashing. But since I'm dealing in core holdings which I've already decided to hold through this bear cycle, I view the cc revenue as a nice serving of gravy, as well as a psychological lift during a very depressing period.

>> April earnings reports will undermine this 2nd half optimism and that will take most indexes considerably lower

That seems to be the a widely held expectation, which is the very reason I distrust it. But in any case, I'm relying of the performance of a very small set of what I judge to be superior companies, not on an index. None of them have warned thus far (knock wood), and it's possible they may outperform the indexes.

>> this rout will not be over UNTIL THE PUBLIC HATES STOCKS

I'm a public, and if I'm any indication, we're there.

>> springtime in SanFran ?

Very. I reloaded the hummingbird feeders last weekend, and my backyard choir of Anna's Hummingbirds have responded with some fine performances <gg>.

uf