To: CommanderCricket who wrote (2712 ) 4/2/2001 5:32:25 PM From: The Ox Respond to of 23153 API Preview: Crude, distillates down; gasoline, runs higher Apr. 2-MAR-- By John Troland Houston, April 2 (BridgeNews) - Inventories of crude oil are expected to have fallen by 3.5-4.0 million barrels last week, while distillate stocks are also expected to have decreased by 0.8 to 1.2 million barrels, according to analysts and brokers. Gasoline stocks are expected to have risen 0.9 to 1.2 million barrels, while refinery runs are seen higher by 1.0-1.3 percentage points. * * * Analysts were unanimous in their predictions for the direction crude, gasoline and refinery runs would take in Tuesday's latest API data report. In addition, they were mostly in agreement that the report would show that distillate fuels inventories would continue. American Petroleum Institute data are due out after 1630 ET Tuesday, while U.S. Department of Energy data are due at 0900 ET Wednesday. Following are expectations for inventories for the week ended March 30. The ranges reflect the average of the most popular forecasts gathered from brokers and analysts. Forecast change Previous week (ended Mar. 23) --------------- --------------------------- Crude oil Down 3.5-4.0 mln bbls 302.640 million barrels Gasoline Up 0.9-1.3 mln bbls 196.452 million barrels Distillates Down 0.8-1.2 mln bbls 110.362 million barrels Refineries Up 1.0-1.3% points 89.5% of capacity CRUDE: Inventories of crude oil are expected to show a drop of 3.5-4.0 million barrels in the upcoming API report analysts and brokers suggested. The common theme among all those surveyed was that recent high crude import levels would not be seen in this week's data, and would cause stockpiles to drop beck below the 300 million barrel level. Also a few of those surveyed suggested that there would likely be an internal adjustment that would cause inventories to show a decline. A few analysts said they thought imports would drop near or below the 9.0 million barrel per day level versus the previous week's 10.244 million-bpd level. In addition, most of those surveyed said they expected crude runs to rise at least 100,000 bpd from the previous week's 14.795 million-bpd level. Crude inventory estimates ranged from a 1.5-5.1 million-barrel decrease. GASOLINE Expectations are for gasoline stocks to have risen 0.9 to 1.3 million barrels as an increase in production of about 100,000 bpd from the previous week's 7.7 million-bpd level is expected. Also, a few suggested that import levels would remain close to last week's 465,000 bpd level, while demand is expected to have fallen from the previous week's 8.4 million bpd level. Ranges for gasoline inventories were from a 0.4-2.1 million-barrel rise. DISTILLATES: Brokers and analysts surveyed were mostly in agreement that distillate inventories would fall. All but one of those surveyed suggested that distillate fuel stockpiles would drop with most suggesting that output would start to slip as refiners changed their operations to maximize gasoline output. A number of those surveyed said they expected imports would also likely drop from the previous week's 359,000 bpd level while demand remained close to the 4.0 million bpd level. The range for distillate inventories was for it to be down 1. million barrels to 0.6 million barrels higher. REFINERIES: Most of those surveyed said they were expecting a rise in refinery runs, citing doubt that last week's 1.8 basis point drop was correct. They said that most thought most Spring maintenance is now over. The East Coast still has major maintenance at a Coastal refinery at Westville, New Jersey and at Sunoco's refinery in Philadelphia. Both have major crude unit shutdowns that began mid-March. The range of refinery run estimates were for them to be up 0.7 to 1.4 basis points. End