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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Telemarker who wrote (2717)	4/2/2001 10:45:57 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

We are starting to see some "reasonable" valuations on many techs, and some bargain prices on others. But many still have air to expunge. I don't trust some of the Book Values figures I'm seeing. BRCM, VRSN. I do not really understand what is the value of "Good Will" and how this is allowed to work it's way into the BV equation. I was a semicap investor during the last two down cycles, buying at what looked like low prices, hanging on as they dropped much lower, and then riding them back up. Until today, it seemed that semicaps were getting a pass. I've been very patient with my buys, however I've been stung here to the tune of -15% YTD for my taxable port. The "bear market rally" never came. Still sitting with 35% cash, most of which is stuffed in some bond funds, waiting for the Pre-Columbian historical period. Marco Polo?? I will put this remaining cash to work when Quehubo does. Gottfried, it would seem that the types of corrections we've seen in past semicap cyclical nadirs will spill over to all tech. As I recall, KLAC could be had for about 2x book, AMAT about 1.5x book. The secondary players traded well under book, nearing cash per share. ASYT, CYMI and LRCX were the ones I was involved with. I used todays blowoff to pick up another small addition to the IRA - NUFO and ORCL today. $3K each. I'm going to try and create a mix of strong gorilla stocks with potential 10-baggers, knowing full well some of the latter may fizzle and die. So far, this IRA is 6% invested. Of course if the Chi-coms launch nuclear missles at San Francisco, it won't really matter what I invest in.

To: Telemarker who wrote (2717)	4/3/2001 1:16:42 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Sure looks like things have gotten somewhat ugly, and that the rotation game may have ended. The rotation game is still being played. Take a look at Alcoa and many of the chemical companies over the past 4-6 months. The railroads over the past year. Areas in the health industry have been doing very nicely over the past year (some decent 52 week% gains on this list): siliconinvestor.com There are ways to play this market on the long side even during bear markets. The main reason we don't hear much about the sectors that are in rebound or bull mode is "the street's" tunnel vision at anything associated with the electronic (and lately optical) industries (semis, computers, phones, etc...). Where one thinks we are in the economic cycle should dictate where money should be put to work if one wants to take advantage of the current environment. I've seen some discussion on the inverted bond yield curve signaling a sharp slowdown or recession. The reversal is an indicator that suggests the rebound isn't too far off. If this is the case, one needs to focus on the sectors that have traditionally done well coming out of a recession. Somewhere I have a link that shows the economic cycle and the industries that perform the best during each phase and if I find it I'll post the link here. By taking into consideration the variables that are exerting pressure on the current downturn (high utility and petroleum/ng prices are one strong factor), we should be able to identify areas of 'short term' potential. If memory serves me, the Airlines are one area that should do well once we have bottomed out and the rebound is in full gear.