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To: JRI who wrote (89012)	4/2/2001 10:59:25 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 436258

fewer short by 3919 contracts. I think one should be overly careful period. There's a little bit of stuff that points both ways here, but it's getting more bearish already if that's possible.<ng> 4 week cycle is one that looked somewhat bullish till this wednesday(and that's changing) ... after that it could get dicey again. but i think the 6th could be a cycle high to lows 4/23...between 6-23 seems to portend negativity regardless... then two weeks of up. everyday changes the count<gg> %cot is a lagging indicator ie. it turns before the market. FWIW it has rolled over signifying the possibility that lows are close at hand... for now. all just a guess, next weeks #s will be even more important, but suffice to say there are alot of diffent patterns that can play out over the next few months...all really just swing trades one way or the other. The only thing that could save the market here is some sideways action... mid june and july look bad. I saw an interesting chart of the dollar going back to 1985 or so that measured a huge Inv H/S to 125. There is a lot of concern that $ strength is indicating some banking collapse somewhere that should wilt all tea leaves significantly<g> see heinz's post 88003 Best Regards, JM